Copper aluminum, cobalt lithium and precious metal sectors are recommended. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.11%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.68%, the SW nonferrous index fell 0.96%, Comex gold rose 4.49% and silver rose 6.84%. The prices of LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin, the main industrial metals, changed by 13.62%, 7.51%, 12.83%, 3.75%, 20.30% and 7.35% respectively; LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin in major industrial metal inventories changed by – 3.52%, – 6.74%, – 1.28%, – 2.59%, – 3.75% and + 2.00% respectively.
Industrial metals: China’s steady growth target is officially clear. With the superposition of the impact of foreign geopolitical crisis, industrial metals fluctuate upward, and commodities will maintain a bull market pattern in the future. Core view: the government work report specifies that the GDP target growth in 2022 is about 5.5%, and the demand force is worth looking forward to. Under the energy transformation and infrastructure force, we continue to be optimistic about the price of industrial metals. At the same time, we need to pay attention to the impact of the situation in Russia and Ukraine on the price of metals. Aluminum: on the supply side, the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production in China has been accelerated, and the overall operating capacity has increased steadily; The start-up in the lower reaches of Chinalco picked up slightly, and the social inventory was 1.12 million tons, with a slowdown in growth; Western sanctions against Russia continued to increase, overseas aluminum supply and transportation were limited, crude oil rose sharply, European natural gas prices were high, and aluminum prices would run high under the support of costs. Copper: China’s spot inventory fell this week, and the stock accumulation trend after the spring festival may gradually end. Combined with the tight supply situation in the overseas market, there is a high probability of maintaining long-term stock removal in the future. The superposition is approaching the peak consumption season in March, supporting the upward rise of copper price. Focusing on the focus of the following focus: followingfollowing the following following: followingthe\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) , China nonferrous mining industry, etc.
New energy metals: the supply is still limited, the demand continues to be strong, and the long-term growth opportunity under the energy revolution is determined, supporting the rise of lithium and cobalt prices. Core view: in January, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles was 622000, with a year-on-year increase of + 93%. The downstream demand was strong, the supply of raw materials was tight, and the metal price continued to rise. Cobalt: affected by logistics, China’s Cobalt raw material inventory is low, and the recent demand for overseas power cobalt is good, which promotes the upward trend of cobalt price. Lithium: the supply of lithium raw material is tight, some manufacturers still have maintenance from February to March, and the supply remains stable. There is still a small increase in the demand of downstream iron lithium and ternary power, the demand for goods is still there, and the price of lithium rises rapidly. Focus on: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , etc.
Precious metals: under the situation of Russia and Ukraine, the demand for safe haven of precious metals is rising, and the price of gold is expected to rise under the background of high inflation. Core view: under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the market risk aversion supports the price of precious metals. Although the expectation of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve puts pressure on the price of gold, in the long run, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may lead to runaway inflation, and there is still room for upward price. Western sanctions against Russia exceeded the expectations of rating agencies, and the gold price rose to a high of US $1974.9 per ounce. At the same time, the Russian Central Bank began to increase its holdings of gold, and the gold price is still supported in the short term. Under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the global supply of key raw materials and energy is limited. Once the conflict expands, it may lead to the interruption of some commodity exports, further aggravate the global inflationary pressure in the future, and the gold price is expected to continue to rise. Focus on: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , gold mining industry and Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) .
Risk warning: demand is less than expected, supply is released more than expected, policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk.
