Market review this week:
CITIC coal index closed at 305584 points, up 9.95%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 11.64pct, ranking No. 1 in the rise and fall list of CITIC primary sector.
Analysis of key areas:
Thermal coal: pay attention to the change of port inventory level and downstream demand. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of port q5500 was about 1380 yuan / ton, up 260 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. In terms of origin, the coal mine production in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia was active this week, and the average daily output of Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) remained high. According to cctd data, the national coal output recovered to more than 12 million tons, basically returning to the high level before the festival; However, after the implementation of the price limit policy, the sales of coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia are mainly long-term cooperative coal and guaranteed supply coal. There are relatively few coal resources in the market, and it is difficult for non long-term cooperative users such as chemical industry to buy coal. In terms of ports, the downstream demand recovered rapidly, but under the intensive policy, the coal distribution stations mainly supply long-term cooperative coal and old customers. The coal distribution volume in the market is small, the transaction volume is small, and the transfer out volume is stable. On the whole, the transfer out is less than the transfer in, and the inventory in Beigang has increased slightly, but the inventory recovery is slow and the available resources are tight. In the downstream, the spring is getting stronger and the daily consumption is falling. This week, the resumption of work and production of enterprises around Beijing accelerated; However, with the temperature rising in the south, the national temperature is slightly higher than that in the same period of the year, resulting in the decline of the high daily consumption. Based on the decline of coal supply of the power plant, the inventory of the power plant is still in the state of de stocking. In terms of import, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, overseas coal prices rise sharply, and some imported coal hangs upside down, which will affect the subsequent coal import quantity to a certain extent. With the convening of the two meetings, the overall demand for coal will continue to be tight, and the supply of high-quality coal will continue to be strict, which will certainly form a short-term support for the resumption of production and safety of the lower reaches. At present, the main contradiction in the power coal market is still along the coast, the storage of power coal in the port is at a low level in recent years, and the function of the reservoir is weakened; At the same time, the cost of imported coal is high, and China's coal price is facing policy risks at any time, or lead to the reduction of import quantity, which will affect the supply of coastal power coal. If the problem of low inventory along the coast cannot be solved, even in the off-season, the coal price will rise again after the periodic decline. The medium and short-term 700800 yuan / ton should be the bottom area of the coastal coal price.
Coking coal: the demand is strong and the price continues to rise. The coking coal market operated strongly this week, and the price of coking coal continued to rise. Specifically, the price of high-quality coal such as main coking coal continued to rise, but the increase was narrower than that of last week, while the price of some coking coal such as poor lean coal and gas coal that did not rise in the early stage began to rise this week. As of Friday, the Shanxi main coke of Jingtang Port had closed at 2930 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. This week, the supply of coking coal market continued to increase. Some coal mines have not resumed production in the early holidays, and the supply has continued to grow. In terms of importing Mongolian coal, the epidemic situation has gradually eased, and the customs clearance at Ganqi Maodu port has begun to recover. According to sxcoal data, the customs clearance this week (2.28-3.3) lasted for 4 days, with an average of 143 vehicles per day, an increase of 51 vehicles per day compared with the same period of the week before the festival; Although the customs clearance volume has increased, the tradable resources are still tight, and traders are optimistic about the future market. The quotation of Mongolian coal continues to rise this week. At present, the mainstream quotation of Mongolian 5 raw coal is about 20 Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of Mongolian 5 clean coal is about 25 Changzhou Qianhong Biopharma Co.Ltd(002550) yuan / ton. On the demand side, the operating rate of both coke and steel companies is rising, and the raw coal storage of most coke and steel enterprises is temporarily at a medium and low level, so they have high enthusiasm for raw coal procurement; However, based on the improvement of capacity utilization of coke steel, the accumulated inventory of coke steel is less than expected, and the subsequent replenishment demand is strong. In the short term, there is still room for improvement in downstream demand. With the superposition of low inventory of coke steel enterprises, the downstream has sufficient power to actively replenish the inventory, and the price of coking coal will still rise strongly.
Coke: with strong recovery of demand and strong support of cost, the price still has room to rise. This week, the second round of coke rise landed. This round of rise was 200 yuan / ton, with a cumulative rise of 400 yuan / ton. On the supply side, there was still some interference from the environmental protection and production restriction of the place of origin during the two sessions. The operation rate of coke enterprises in some regions fell slightly, and the operation rate of coke enterprises increased only slightly; At the same time, the second round of rising and landing, the profit per ton of coke has been greatly improved, and the production enthusiasm is expected to be improved. On the demand side, the blast furnace start-up and hot metal output of the downstream steel plant have increased significantly, and the just demand has rebounded steadily, supporting the strong demand for replenishment of the steel plant. However, due to the impact of the environmental protection and production restriction policy, the supply recovery of coke enterprises is less than expected, the steel plant has difficulty in purchasing and the arrival situation is not ideal, so more efforts should be made to replenish the steel plant. On the whole, there is a certain mismatch between the supply and demand of coke in the short term. The fundamentals continue to strengthen, superimposed with the rise of coking coal price. Under the support of cost, the coke price is still expected to rise. We expect there will still be 2-3 rounds of rising space in the future.
Investment strategy. After entering the off-season of demand in March, coal prices may show a seasonal downward trend. However, if the problem of low coastal inventory cannot be effectively solved, the coal price may rise again after the periodic decline. In addition, China will still be based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, and traditional energy will not withdraw too soon. Under the background of limited space for tapping the potential of new production capacity and stock, the rise of coal price center will contribute to the stable release of performance and valuation repair of coal enterprises. In addition, the increase of Hong Kong coal stocks in this round is much higher than that of a shares, which also reflects that under the macro environment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, foreign capital pursues the target of high dividend, and the subsequent A shares are expected to catch up. Stick to the core assets and be optimistic about the valuation repair of high long-term association and high score red coal enterprises. Key recommendations: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) . In addition, the transformation of traditional energy enterprises under the goal of "double carbon" is worth looking forward to. The key recommendations are power investment energy (green power), Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) (energy storage), Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) (new materials and green power), Yankuang energy (new materials and green power), Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (hydrogen energy) and China Xuyang group (hydrogen energy). Actively layout the national reform in Shanxi, and focus on recommending Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , with expected asset injection.
Risk tip: China's output release exceeded expectations, the downstream demand was less than expected, and the on grid electricity price was significantly reduced.
