Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) (000799)
event
According to Netease News, on December 26, the company held the 2021 Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) fragrance Conference (national partner annual meeting), summarized 21 years of growth and reflection, and deployed 22 years of marketing work.
Business analysis
21 years to achieve rapid growth, but still need to reflect. The company has achieved rapid development in terms of performance, brand value, number of teams and customers, circle marketing, etc. since 2018, the growth rate of internal cooperative customers has been 10 times and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) 3 times, and the sales staff of the whole team is 3 times that of 19 years; In the past 21 years, the number of core terminals increased by 233% year-on-year, 11 internal value seminars and 64 tasting meetings (covering more than 10000 people). In the past 22 years, the company faced problems such as how to increase the quantity of large single products with waist price, how to highlight the price band of secondary high-end products, and how to strengthen management and construction after the surge of team.
The strategy of focusing on large single products and deep nationalization in 22 years is expected to achieve higher quality and high growth. 1) Products: creating large pieces is the top priority of 22 years of work. Internal reference continues the strategy of price stabilization and increment, enriches the internal reference sales company model, and will develop into the largest single product in the future; Drunkard series we believe that there are relatively scattered products (it is estimated that in 21 years, it will account for 25-30% of hongtan, about 20% of transparent clothes and 10% of inheritance), and the price belt has not been clearly separated. Next year, it is expected to focus on building through clearer product planning, accurate supply, innovation and cooperation mode with excellent suppliers; Xiangquan will implement quota supply. 2) regionally: strengthen the base, break through the highland and deeply nationalize. Henan, Shandong, Hebei, etc The base market will quickly reach 500-1 billion, focusing on depth, scale and dynamic sales; Beijing, East China, Guangdong and other highland markets focus on brand value and banner leadership, and quickly break through the scale. 3) Consumer Cultivation: over the past two years, the company has invested more than 200 million in cultural communication. In 22 years, circle marketing will become the focus of the team and strive to improve the innovation, accuracy and width of circle marketing.
Wait for 22 years to make a good start, and the medium and long-term leading goal of fragrant tulip is 10 billion. At present, the inventory is reasonable and the price is stable (the rated price of internal reference is 820-830), and the Spring Festival payment is expected to be 30-40%. According to the channel feedback, the target growth rate of internal reference sales in 22 years is more than 60%, and the target growth rate of drunkard series is more than 30% (it is planned to build 1-2 large single products of more than 1 billion in 2-3 years); the medium and long-term fragrant tulip leader has sufficient potential to anchor 10 billion.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
It is estimated that the revenue growth rate will be 86% / 42% / 32%, the profit growth rate will be 95% / 53% / 39%, the corresponding EPS will be 2.95/4.52/6.25 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 79 / 51 / 37x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk statement
The progress of nationalization is not as expected, the risk of repeated epidemic, macroeconomic risk and food safety problems.
