Price: steel prices rose this week. This week, the price of 20mm HRB400 thread was 4920 yuan / ton, up + 3.6% from last week, and the price of hot rolling 3.0mm was 5190 yuan / ton, up + 6.1% from last week. Raw material price differentiation this week. This week, the price of iron ore in the port rose compared with last week; Coke prices rose compared with last week; Scrap prices fell compared with last week.
Profit: the profit of rebar fell this week. In terms of long-term process, it is estimated that the gross profit per ton of rebar, hot rolling and cold rolling in the industry this week is – 76 yuan / ton, + 28 yuan / ton and – 119 yuan / ton respectively compared with the previous week. In terms of short process, the profit of EAF steel rebounded this week compared with the previous week.
Output and inventory: this week, the weekly ratio of rebar output increased, the weekly ratio of warehouses of the five major steel plants decreased, and the weekly ratio of social warehouses increased. In terms of output, the output of large steel varieties on Friday was 9.56 million tons, up 310700 tons week on week, including 185100 tons of construction steel, 125600 tons of sector and 167300 tons to 2902800 tons of rebar. In terms of different steelmaking methods, the output of long and short process deformed steel bars this week were 2.5683 million tons and 3345 thousand tons respectively, and the cycle to cycle ratio was + 85400 tons and + 81900 tons respectively. In terms of inventory, on Friday, the total social inventory of large steel varieties increased by 294600 tons to 17.846 million tons, the total inventory of steel mills increased by 6.3167 million tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 64900 tons, of which the rebar social warehouse increased by 351600 tons and the factory warehouse decreased by 4100 tons. In terms of apparent consumption, it is estimated that the apparent consumption of deformed steel bars this week is 2555300 tons, an increase of 665400 tons on a weekly basis. The average daily turnover of construction steel this week is 174700 tons, an increase of 55.52% on a weekly basis.
Investment suggestion: the government work report of the national two sessions emphasizes that “we should adhere to the principle of stability and seek progress while maintaining stability. In the face of new downward pressure, we should put stable growth in a more prominent position”. It is expected that the stable growth policy will be promoted in an orderly manner to support the demand for steel. In the short term, the downstream construction accelerated in March, and the steel consumption improved. It is estimated that the apparent consumption of deformed steel bars this week was 2.553 million tons, up 665400 tons on a weekly basis. On the supply side, the limited production in the heating season continues, and the release of steel output is limited. In terms of inventory, the social inventory base slowed down, and the sector inventory fell. On the whole, the steady growth policy has been gradually promoted, with the acceleration of downstream construction in March, the peak season of steel consumption is coming, the output at the supply side is limited, the steel fundamentals are improved, and the focus of steel price is expected to continue to rise. Suggestions: 1) ordinary steel sector: Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) ; 2) Special steel sector: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) ; 3) Target of Superalloy: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ; 4) Target of graphite electrode: Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) ; 5) Pipe object: Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) .
Risk tip: the demand for real estate steel has fallen precipitously; Steel prices fell sharply; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly
