Revenue side: optimistic about the development of the whole year in terms of volume and price
Price: the price increase accelerates the upward trend of ton price, and the high-end products are still on the way. From a macro perspective, the current scissors gap between PPI and CPI is narrowing. Excluding the impact of pig price, CPI is rising moderately, and the upward trend of means of living PPI is obvious. This round of rapid cost rise has led to a general price increase in the beer industry. It is expected that in addition to large single products, prices of small-scale and regional categories are also increased. It has become an industry consensus to deal with the rising cost. In the past, there were several rounds of price increases, and the ton price at the report end increased significantly. It is expected that this round of price increases can also be transmitted smoothly and the range is greater than that of the previous round of price increases. The ton price of the industry has increased in the middle and high single digits. At the same time, under the general trend of price increases, pay attention to the profit elasticity of enterprises with relatively poor product structure under price increases.
Quantity: on the way to recovery, grasp the short-term elasticity. In the long run, it can be seen from the population structure, per capita drinking volume and the comparison with neighboring countries that the total output of China's beer industry is difficult to increase significantly; In the short term, seize the opportunity of year-on-year and month on month improvement. The overall sales volume of the industry is not continuously negative growth. Affected by the external environment and base effect, we can still see a slight increase in sales volume in the short term. On a year-on-year basis, the peak season in 2021 is affected by many factors and the production and sales volume of the industry is depressed. It is expected that there will be a year-on-year improvement in 2022. On a month on month basis, the beer industry is expected to benefit from the recovery of catering and the recovery of residents' consumption willingness, It is suggested to grasp the volume increase opportunities brought by improvement.
Cost side: the overall high level fell, and the cost pressure was relieved. The glass price drops from the higher point, and the current price is lower than the overall level in 2021; Barley remains high. In the short term, the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is small, but the long-term impact still needs to be observed; After the fall of aluminum price, it ushered in a slight rise again; The price of corrugated paper fell by 10% compared with the high level and showed a downward trend as a whole. According to the model calculation, the rising pressure on the cost of beer enterprises in 2021q4 has eased, and the rising speed of the cost has slowed down. The current cost pressure is expected to be the same as that in 2017q4. If the cost of relevant raw materials continues to fall, the overall cost pressure in 2022 is expected to be the same or slightly higher than that in 2018. From the statement side, the impact of the price increase in 2018 is expected to be transmitted to the statement side in the peak season of 2022. At the same time, on the premise that the industry is jointly profit-oriented, the rising cost will test the operation level of various wine enterprises, and the orderly progress of supply chain optimization, cost-effectiveness ratio improvement, cost reduction and efficiency increase is also an opportunity for improvement.
Investment suggestion: pay attention to the leader and grasp the flexibility. In the case of price increase, we should actively pay attention to the transmission of price increase, sales performance and the improvement of enterprise operation efficiency. Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) and China Resources beer are recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) and Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) .
Risk tip: the price rise of raw materials is higher than expected, the cost model and relevant calculation have limitations, the epidemic situation repeatedly affects the recovery of consumption, and the industry competition intensifies.
