The price of photovoltaic glass rose slightly and continued to pay attention to the progress of production capacity
Last week, the prices of 2mm and 3.2mm photovoltaic coated glass were 20 and 26 yuan / m2 respectively, up 4.17% and 4.00% month on month. Manufacturers' inventory days were 22.06 days, down 4.12% from last week. Recently, the price of fuel at the raw material end has increased, the soda ash market is operating at a high level, and the profit margin of glass manufacturers has been compressed. The price of silicon material is on the high side, which has a certain inhibitory effect on short-term demand, but some bidding projects of terminal power station are promoted, and the long-term is optimistic. In the medium and long term, if the price of upstream raw materials falls in the future and driven by policies, the demand for photovoltaic installation is expected to continue to improve in 22 / 23 years. On the supply side, the daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass last week was 43610 tons, unchanged month on month. The production plan of photovoltaic glass in 22 years is large, but the promotion is general. Under the current price, we think the production capacity in 22 years still needs to be observed. Generally speaking, we believe that the average profit of the whole industry is currently or still at the bottom range, and some small kilns are unprofitable under the current price level. We judge that the downward space of price is limited. If the demand accelerates to improve in the future, the price of photovoltaic glass is still expected to rise periodically, and we continue to be optimistic about the logic of simultaneous rise in volume and price of leading companies in the future.
The price of float glass decreased slightly, and the demand for 22q2 is expected to reach a small peak
The average price of float glass in China this week decreased by 1.05% month on month compared with last week, mainly to digest social inventory, and the production and sales remained low. The manufacturer's inventory was 46.72 million weight boxes, an increase of 5.48 million weight boxes compared with last week. The internal production capacity was 173925t / D, unchanged month on month. The cost side fuel price rose slightly this week, the price of the original film was under pressure due to the weak demand, and the profit of float glass decreased. We believe that if the margin of real estate funds improves in the future, the demand side of float glass is still expected to rebound in the short term, and it is expected to usher in a small peak of completion in the first half of this year.
Continue to recommend photovoltaic glass faucets, and float faucets have medium and long-term investment value
The demand of photovoltaic industry is expected to improve marginally, the cost advantage of glass leader is significant, and the capacity side has high growth. It is recommended to recommend [Xinyi solar energy] (joint coverage with Dianxin), [ Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ] (joint coverage with Dianxin), and from the perspective of dilemma reversal [ Changzhou Almaden Co.Ltd(002623) ]. The stock price of the float leader has been significantly adjusted. Considering the profit and valuation of its float business in equilibrium and the additional growth brought by new businesses such as photovoltaic, we believe that the current float leader has good medium and long-term investment value, and continue to recommend [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ], [Xinyi Glass], [ Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ]; From the perspective of new glass materials, UTG original film breaks through the foreign monopoly, and the production and sales are expected to grow rapidly after domestic substitution. Continue to recommend [ Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) ] (jointly covered with the electronic group). Under the logic of domestic substitution of medicinal glass, recommend the head enterprise of CBSI medicinal glass [ Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) ] (jointly covered with the medical group).
Risk tip: the general rise of raw materials has delayed the downstream demand for real estate, photovoltaic and other products beyond expectations; Float production capacity and capacity utilization increased more than expected.
