Market Review
Last week (02280304), the building materials (CITIC) index fell 1.63% and the CSI 300 fell 1.68%. The cement sector achieved positive returns. The positive returns of the ceramic sector mainly came from transformation companies, and the varieties of the real estate chain fell more. Among individual stocks, Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) , Zyf Lopsking Aluminum Co.Ltd(002333) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , ad shares, Xinjiang Guotong Pipeline Co.Ltd(002205) led the increase. The economic objectives of the two sessions reduce the market's concerns about the steady growth policy, and the short-term fundamentals of infrastructure varieties are expected to be better. We believe that the two sessions have defined the economic growth target of 5.5%, which is expected to significantly reduce the market's concerns about the coherence and effect of the steady growth policy. Although the annual budget deficit rate has decreased compared with last year, considering other channels of fiscal power, We believe that this year's financial support for infrastructure is expected to be significantly better than last year. In addition, we believe that the two sessions are in line with market expectations in terms of special bonds, investment in the central budget, the key direction of infrastructure development, and the policy orientation of real estate. On the whole, we continue to believe that infrastructure end building materials (such as infrastructure pipelines) are expected to show a high boom in fundamentals in the short term, while the fundamentals of real estate chain building materials may gradually stabilize and recover after Q2.
In February, the sales area of second-hand houses and new houses may still decline more year-on-year
We made statistics on the transaction area of second-hand houses in 13 representative cities with complete second-hand house transaction data. The transaction area of second-hand houses decreased by 49.7% year-on-year in February and 47.4% in the first two months, which may reflect that the current transaction heat of second-hand houses is still at a low level. According to wind, the transaction area of 22m2 commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 27.2% year-on-year, with a total decrease of 28.9% in the first two months, still higher than Q4 last year. We believe that the current year-on-year growth rate of sales area of new houses and second-hand houses has not shown any signs of improvement, which is related to the lack of transmission of policy force and the high base period of Q1 last year. However, recently, the policies related to real estate sales have gradually spread at the local level, and the trend of stable growth policy is also relatively clear. We judge that the sales data is expected to gradually improve after entering Q2, driving the demand of the real estate chain to pick up.
Continue to be optimistic about stable growth and fundamental reversal, and recommend the consumption of building materials / pipelines / cement, etc
1) influenced by the prosperity of real estate, capital chain and cost pressure last year, the above factors are expected to gradually improve. In the medium and long term, the leading companies have started channel reform, and the scale effect is expected to continuously improve the industry concentration, both long and short; 2) The downstream of the plastic pipeline sector has both infrastructure and real estate. The infrastructure end is expected to benefit from the warming of municipal pipe network investment, and the logic of the real estate end is similar to that of consumer building materials; 3) Cement is expected to benefit from the improvement of follow-up infrastructure and real estate demand. In the medium and long term, the supply pattern is expected to be continuously optimized; 4) At present, the market value of the leading glass enterprises is at a low level. At present, they are in the period of accelerated resumption of work in spring, and the glass price is expected to gradually rise. This year, the overall supply and demand of the industry may still be in a tight balance, the unit profit of float glass is expected to be relatively stable, photovoltaic glass is expected to benefit from the recovery of the industrial chain, and electronic glass is expected to benefit from the large volume of new products such as domestic substitutes and folding screens; 5) The demand side of glass fiber is driven by the downstream of wind power and overseas, and the increment on the supply side is limited.
Investment advice
Recommendations for consumer building materials Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , etc; The pipeline recommends China Liansu, Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) , ad shares, etc; Cement recommendations Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) ; Glass recommended Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Xinyi Glass, etc; Glass fiber recommendation China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) etc;
Risk tip: the demand for infrastructure and real estate fell more than expected, affecting the rising trend of cement and glass prices; The promotion of old reform and new urbanization was less than expected.
