Nanya New Material Technology Co.Ltd(688519) (688519)
Event description
On December 27, the company conveyed two matters on the investor interaction platform: 1) the company’s N5 plant is expected to start partial trial operation at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter of 2022; 2) At present, the company’s BT materials have mature products and are in production, and ABF materials are under test.
Business analysis
The logic of volume increase is being realized, and the compound production capacity of 39% in two years lays the foundation for growth. At present, the company is the 12th largest supplier of copper clad laminate in the world and the 3rd largest supplier in the mainland. The global market share is only 2%. Compared with the first market share of 15% in the world and 12% in the mainland, the company still has great room for improvement. Based on this, the company has begun to actively layout its production capacity since its listing. According to the company’s plan, Jiangxi N5 plant will be put into operation in 2022 and N6 plant will be put into operation in 2023. Jiangxi plant also reserves the production capacity of N7 plant. Based on this, we estimate that the company’s production capacity will increase by 39% in the next two years. This time, the company publicly stated that N5 plant will start some trial operation at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter of 2022, which is in line with the previously expected planning arrangement. It can be seen that the company’s volume increase logic is gradually being realized.
R & D releases achievements, and the path of high-end price rise is clear. The company is a Chinese high-quality copper clad laminate supplier focusing on the research and development of high-end products. Its high-speed products are the first full series of products certified by Huawei. At present, such products have entered the stage of batch shipment and are expected to be further mass produced next year. At the same time, the company is also actively developing various types of high-end products. BT and ABF materials publicly announced today belong to one of the key directions. BT materials of the company are divided into two categories. One is BT materials used for miniled. This part of products has been produced in batch and will be released only after the terminal demand starts; The other is BT copper clad laminate used for BT carrier plate. At present, this kind of products are mainly monopolized by Japanese and Korean manufacturers, and there is a large space for domestic substitution. The company is actively developing and cooperating with customers for testing; At the same time, the carrier material is also cooperating with the customer to test the copper clad laminate material for ABF carrier. The company’s R & D layout is far-reaching, and the proportion of high-end products will increase in the future, which will optimize the company’s product structure and have a clear price rise logic.
Investment advice
Although the CCL industry is currently in a cycle dilemma, we believe that the company is expected to take the lead in getting out of the cycle haze with its own control ability, and is still optimistic about the company’s layout for a long time. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 400 million yuan, 550 million yuan and 760 million yuan, with a corresponding PE of 29x \ 22x \ 16x, and continue to give a “buy” rating.
Risk statement
The demand is less than expected; Falling prices lead to lower than expected profits; The ban on restricted shares was lifted.
