The GDP target is about 5.5% higher than expected, and the “steady growth” is firm in 2022: the relevant policies of building materials in the 2022 government work report are summarized as follows: in terms of the work target, it is proposed that China’s GDP is expected to grow by about 5.5%; In terms of real estate, it was mentioned that “we should adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living rather than speculation, promote the construction of affordable housing, stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations, promote the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies, and” try our best to help new citizens and young people alleviate housing difficulties “; In terms of infrastructure construction, it was mentioned that “infrastructure investment should be carried out moderately in advance around the major national strategic deployment and the 14th five year plan”. The special debt in 2022 is expected to be 3.65 trillion and “continue to promote the construction of underground comprehensive pipe gallery”.
The real estate chain has a large expectation difference and attaches importance to the leader of undervalued consumer building materials: since February, there have been many corrections in the consumer building materials sector. We summarize three reasons: first, there are differences in the expectation of real estate policies. The three stability tone determines the stability of demand side / supply side policies, which is more due to the space of urban policy implementation, but the endogenous demand of third and fourth tier cities is facing uncertainty, targeted purchase restrictions The effect of the liberalization of loan restrictions has also been repeatedly demonstrated; Second, the price rise of upstream coal chemical industry and crude oil chain has eroded the profits of the middle reaches. Based on the above two points, the building materials category “how to resist inflation at a favorable price” and “how to improve the sales volume and gain share against the trend” are particularly important in the business environment of 2022. Third, the gross profit margin of some enterprises is lower than expected, and the credit accrual of large B sector is worried. There are uncertainties in the internal and external macro environment changes this year, which has brought certain pressure to the consumption and export ends. In order to achieve the GDP growth target, we believe that the contribution of the real estate chain is expected to improve marginally, and gradually transition from the bottom of the policy to the bottom of the market. After Ganzhou, Chongqing, Heze and other second and third tier cities reduced the down payment ratio, the first-line housing loan policies in Guangzhou and Hangzhou were also loosened. From February 21, the six major banks in Guangzhou collectively reduced the housing loan interest rate. On February 23, the mortgage interest rate of the first and second homes in Hangzhou was reduced, and the subsequent trading volume data of new houses and second-hand houses are expected to improve. Real estate sales is the source of confidence. Although some real estate enterprises still have the possibility of bond default in the near future, and the enterprise side risk has not been completely cleared, the overall process is coming to an end. In mid February, the “national measures for the supervision of pre-sale funds of commercial housing” was issued to improve the flexibility of the use of pre-sale funds and solve the liquidity of real estate enterprises to a certain extent. After the policy bottoms out, the small cycle of real estate is expected to recover, and the data of sales, commencement, construction and completion are gradually improved. At the current time point, the dynamic PE of consumer building materials elasticity leader in 2022 is generally 10-15x, and the core leader is 20-25x. We suggest paying attention to two spaces: ① valuation and repair space; ② Profit expectation and repair space. A low to high sort of a low to high valuation: a low to high sort of a low to a high: a low to high sort of a low to a high: a low to a low to a low to a high: a low to a high to sort: the [[China United Plastic] for the [ ofthe valuation of a low to a low to a low to a high to sort: the [China United Plastic [China United Plastic] [[ ‘s [ ofchina’s associated plastic [ ‘s 30073 [ for the 30073of a Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\[ Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ] [ Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ].
The construction of xiaoyangchun has accelerated, and the capital construction projects + funds have increased: at present, the civil market of [cement] in the Yangtze River Delta has accelerated to recover. This week, the shipment rate in the South has recovered by 60% and that in the North has maintained by 20-30%. On March 1, the price of cement in Northern Zhejiang increased as scheduled, and the inventory decreased for three consecutive weeks. At present, it is 64%, and 63.88% in the same period last year. In the direction of steady growth, cement, water reducing agent, pipeline and waterproof are mainly recommended. The focus of the [ ‘s Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ”’\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\], fabricated building [ Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) ].
Risk tip: real estate regulation continues to be tightened; The price fluctuation of raw materials & fuels is less than expected; Weather change
