Dongguan Yutong Optical Technology Co.Ltd(300790) (300790)
Investment logic
The security industry has entered the destocking cycle, and the prosperity margin is weakening. 1) From the absolute value of inventory, in 2021, Q3 Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) inventory reached 19.1 billion yuan, with an increase of 71% and a ring increase of 26%, and Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co.Ltd(002236) inventory reached 8.3 billion yuan, with an increase of 62% and a ring increase of 13%. From the ratio of inventory to operating cost, Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co.Ltd(002236) the ratio of inventory to operating cost reached 164% and 171%, rising sharply year-on-year and month on month. 2) From the inventory details, in 2021, the inventory commodities and raw materials in H1 Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) inventory increased by 57% and 35%, and the inventory commodities and raw materials in Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co.Ltd(002236) inventory increased by 61% and 89%. 3) We believe that the high inventory of security enterprises is mainly due to the massive hoarding of raw materials and finished products affected by the lack of core. It is expected that with the decline of demand growth, the security industry will enter the de inventory cycle.
The on-board front mounted lens is progressing smoothly, and it is expected to increase rapidly in 2022. 1) We expect that the market scale of vehicle lens will exceed 30 billion yuan in 2025 Far exceeding the market scale of security lens (10 billion). At present, the company has shipped afterloading products. The company has both glass lens and plastic lens manufacturing technology, and has cooperated with Haikang, Huawei and Dahua security departments for many years, which is expected to be quickly introduced into the vehicle market in the future. 2) in August, the company announced that it would invest 50 million yuan to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary Yutong automotive vision, focusing on the layout of vehicle lens. 3) in November, the company announced the equity incentive plan The unlocking condition is that the net profit in 2022, 2023 and 2024 will increase by 10%, 20% and 30% compared with that in 2021, and the sales of vehicle mounted front lens will not be less than 3 million yuan, 36 million yuan and 11 million yuan. The accrued management expenses from 2021 to 2024 are RMB 08 million, RMB 66 million, RMB 47 million and RMB 24 million. 4) The company plans to launch 360 look around products for the first time. The difficulty of R & D and production is relatively low, and 360 products have good universality, which is conducive to introducing customers quickly. At present, we have contacted more than ten potential customers. We expect that the company will complete product development in January 2022 and enter the mass production stage of vehicle front loading in the second half of the year.
Investment advice
Considering the weakening of the margin of the security business cycle and the provision of equity incentive expenses, we reduced the company's performance from 2021 to 2023 to 280 million, 330 million and 420 million yuan, an increase of 117%, 20% and 26%, and a decrease of 16%, 16% and 16%. Give the company a "buy" rating of 35xpe in 2022 with a target price of 55 yuan.
Risk statement
The demand for traditional security is less than expected, the growth of consumer lens is less than expected, the expansion of high-end lens market is less than expected, the market competition is intensified, and customers are relatively concentrated.
