Traditional infrastructure: the growth rate of the industry’s short-term performance is expected to improve. It is suggested to pay attention to the infrastructure central enterprises with Chinese prefix.
From December 8 to 10, 2021, the central economic work conference set the tone that the economy should achieve steady growth in 2022. When the expectation of export and consumption growth weakens, the government can only stimulate economic development by increasing investment. Based on the dual role of stabilizing the economy and employment, the traditional infrastructure sector is undoubtedly an important driving force for the realization of stable growth. At the same time, it is also the industry that benefits the most and directly. Although the traditional infrastructure belongs to the sector with low performance growth rate and does not have high growth through the cycle, the market macro variables of this year have played a decisive role, that is, steady growth occupies the dominant position in the stage, In this context, the future performance growth of the traditional infrastructure sector is expected to improve, and the certainty is relatively high in the short term. At present, the spring construction tide starts immediately, the orders of traditional infrastructure industries begin to be fulfilled, and the two sessions are about to be held. During the meeting, favorable policies related to infrastructure will probably appear. At this stage, it is suggested to pay attention to the capital construction central enterprises with Chinese prefix, and the relevant targets: China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , etc. It should be noted that the boom of traditional infrastructure is not driven by the industrial development trend, because it does not represent the direction of future economic development. It is only when the valuation is low enough and stimulated by steady growth and loose monetary policy that it has allocation value. In the long run, the continuous growth of the performance of traditional infrastructure can not be guaranteed.
New infrastructure: steady growth superimposed with double carbon, huge space for new energy infrastructure, and focus on new wind power infrastructure.
As an important extension of new infrastructure, new energy is also one of the important starting points for steady growth. There is huge investment space in the field of new energy, which is mandatory under the “double carbon” strategic goal. With the promotion of the national strategy and the positive response of the local government, it is expected to become the pillar industry of the current new infrastructure. From the local two sessions that have been held, the development of green and low-carbon economy has become a key word in the work reports of many provincial and municipal governments. While local governments promote and improve energy conservation and carbon reduction in the field of traditional energy, accelerating the construction of new energy and clean energy projects has become a top priority. For example, Shanghai has made it clear that the construction of offshore wind power and other projects will be accelerated in 2022, with a new installed photovoltaic capacity of 300000 kW; The installed capacity of new and renewable energy in Shandong is more than 10 million KW; Zhejiang has paid close attention to the construction of 10 billion clean energy projects and added more than 4 million kilowatts of wind and solar power installed capacity; Sichuan focuses on the clean energy industry and speeds up the complementary and integrated development of water, wind, phosgene and hydrogen. Therefore, we judge that 2022 will be a great year for the development of new energy infrastructure.
According to the national power industry statistics of 2021 released by the national energy administration, by the end of December 2021, the installed capacity of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation is about 330 million KW and 310 million KW. According to the action plan for carbon peak before 2030, the total installed capacity of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation will reach more than 1.2 billion kw in 2030. Under the “double carbon” strategic goal, the long-term logic of the new energy industry has not changed, and the infrastructure construction in the new energy field driven by it has a large growth space, which is one of the important driving forces to achieve steady growth.
The notice on printing and Distributing Several Policies to promote the steady growth of industrial economy issued by the national development and Reform Commission on February 18, 2022 proposes to promote the development of offshore wind power in Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shandong. With the increasing demand for wind energy in the eastern coastal areas and the gradual reduction of the cost of wind power components, we believe that the field of wind power, especially offshore wind power, is expected to accelerate its development this year. We can pay attention to wind power operators, core wind power equipment, submarine cables and other related targets: Longyuan Power, Haili wind power, Mingyang Zhizao, Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) , etc.
Risk warning: the macro policy is not as expected; Raw material prices rose more than expected.
