View of the semiconductor industry: worried about the demand of the global semiconductor and technology industry leaders affected by the regional war, the global semiconductor and technology stocks have fluctuated significantly recently. In order to make the small chip architecture become the interconnection standard of different designs and manufacturing in the world, this week, the major wafer manufacturers Intel, TSMC and Samsung; Seal and test the sunlight and moonlight of the large factory; AMD, arm, Qualcomm, Google cloud, meta Facebook and Microsoft, which are major chip design companies, have jointly established ucie industry alliance. We believe that the future small chip architecture will be divided into different chip substrates + ABF large carrier modules, and then the ABF large carrier modules of different modules will be integrated on the high-speed HDI motherboard and interconnected through PCIe and CXL transmission standards, In this way, the problem of increasing the area and cost of ABF large carrier can be alleviated. In this way, the semiconductor manufacturing value will be transferred from the earliest Moore’s law wafer miniaturization to the ABF large carrier industry, and part of it will be transferred to advanced sealing and testing players (conducive to Intel, TSMC, sun and moonlight). Only after making the cake bigger can there be a breakthrough in technology.
View of the electronics industry: the demand for new energy vehicles and photovoltaic IGBT is strong, Infineon’s price rises, and the orders of folding screen mobile phone industry chain are strong. In February, China’s major new energy vehicle brands continued to maintain rapid growth. In Byd Company Limited(002594) 2, the sales volume was 90268, with a year-on-year increase of 336%. Ideal, Xiaopeng, Nezha and ai’an all increased by more than 160% year-on-year. Distributed photovoltaic power generation has developed rapidly. Since 2022, the new household consumption is expected to exceed 2gw in January. A national power investment enterprise has launched a bidding of more than 1.5gw in only two months. Since 2022, the supply of low-power inverter for distributed photovoltaic is very tight. IGBT is the core of photovoltaic inverter. Before, the localization rate was low. Since 2021, Huawei and sunshine have increased the development of China’s supply chain. At present, there is strong demand in the industry. Recently, Infineon has increased its price, and the localization process has been further accelerated. At present, there is strong demand for IGBT for photovoltaic, and China’s leading IGBT manufacturers will actively benefit. At the mwc22 conference, the folding screen mobile phones were wonderful. Huawei, Samsung, glory, TCL, oppo, etc. all showed the latest folding screen mobile phone products at the conference. Canalys predicts that the annual compound growth rate of shipments of collapsible screen smartphones will reach 53% from 2021 to 2024. We continue to be optimistic about the opportunities of electronic semiconductors for new energy and intelligent vehicles, focusing on the industrial chain of silicon carbide, IGBT, thin film capacitor and intelligent driving; Consumer electronics is mainly optimistic about AR / VR, folding screen mobile phone innovation and other fields; PCB is mainly optimistic about vehicle and server.
Viewpoint of communication industry: the integration of digitization and “double carbon” ushers in new opportunities for ICT industry. At the mwc22 Barcelona Telecom exhibition this week, Huawei proposed that the density of connection and the accuracy of calculation will determine the strength of the digital economy. To maintain its long-term vitality, it is necessary to increase the new dimension of carbon emission reduction. We believe that the digital economy and the dual carbon strategy are mutually integrated and mutually reinforcing. In 2020, the carbon emissions of ICT industry accounted for only 2.3% of the global carbon emissions. According to GSMA, by 2030, the carbon emissions of ICT industry will account for only 1.97% of the world. ICT is not only a new generation of commercial infrastructure to promote economic growth, but also an important means to achieve the dual carbon goal. In this context, the investment opportunities of the communication industry will be further transferred to the new generation of ICT industry. It is suggested to grasp relevant investment opportunities from two main lines: one is the head company with good market pattern and scale effect in the supply chain of new ICT infrastructure such as 5g, cloud, optical network, IOT perception and satellite Internet; Second, in the scenario of the integration of communication and vertical industries, including the high growth segment leaders in the tracks of emerging industries such as aiot, digital energy and smart cars.
Recomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomcombinations: Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ Shanghai Huace Navigation Technology Ltd(300627) .
Risk tip: the sales volume of new energy vehicles / mobile phones is lower than expected, the intelligent configuration is not as expected, and the valuation is high
