The 2022 government work report released to stabilize the supply chain and drive industrial upgrading: compared with the 2021 government work report, in 2022, in addition to further tax reduction and fee reduction for the manufacturing industry, promoting the upgrading of traditional industries / accelerating the development of advanced manufacturing clusters, and vigorously supporting the construction of capital / talent / incubation platform, 1) “Optimize and stabilize the industrial chain supply chain” and “enhance the independent and controllable ability of the industrial chain supply chain, implement the industrial infrastructure reconstruction project, and give play to the leading and supporting role of large enterprises and the cooperation and supporting role of small, medium and micro enterprises” in 2021, It is changed to “strengthen the supply guarantee of raw materials and key parts, implement the project of ensuring and stabilizing the chain of leading enterprises, and maintain the safety and stability of the supply chain of the industrial chain” in 2022. 2) In 2021, “steadily increase the bulk consumption of automobiles and household appliances, eliminate unreasonable restrictions on second-hand car transactions, increase parking lots, charging piles, power stations and other facilities, and speed up the construction of power battery recycling system” was changed to “continue to support the consumption of new energy vehicles” in 2022. We judge that 1) clarify the pulling effect of new energy vehicles in the industrial chain; 2) Clarify the importance of maintaining the safety and stability of the industrial chain supply chain; 3) Clarify the trend of industrial upgrading and transformation / talent introduction.
Optimistic about the sales prospects of high-end pure electric and plug-in hybrid market segments: according to the data of the passenger Federation, the output of new energy passenger vehicles in January increased by 141.0% year-on-year / decreased by 11.8% month on month to 428000 vehicles, and the wholesale sales increased by 141.4% year-on-year / decreased by 18.5% month on month to 412000 vehicles (the wholesale penetration rate increased by 10.6pcts / decreased by 2.3pcts to 19.0% month on month), Retail sales increased by 132.0% year on year / decreased by 27.0% month on month to 347000 vehicles (retail penetration increased by 9.8 PCTs year on year / decreased by 6.0 PCTs month on month to 16.6%). The sales volume of new forces fell month on month in February; Among them, the sales volume of Xiaopeng automobile increased by 180% year on year / decreased by 52% month on month to 6255 vehicles, the sales volume of ideal automobile increased by 72% year on year / decreased by 31% month on month to 8414 vehicles, and the sales volume of Weilai automobile increased by 10% year on year / decreased by 36% month on month to 6131 vehicles. We judge that 1) from January to February, new energy passenger vehicles are affected by the Spring Festival, reflecting the characteristics of seasonal fluctuations; It is estimated that the supply chain and production capacity are still the leading factors determining the climbing degree of sales. 2) It is expected that auto companies are still expected to hedge the pressure of policy fluctuations and rising costs by retaining orders, time limited pricing, and comprehensive adjustment of prices and equity, so as to maintain stability and steadily release new orders; Among them, high-end pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid may be market segments with strong certainty of sales growth.
Investment suggestions: we judge that 1) the recent sector fluctuations are mainly based on market expectations such as the rise in the price of upstream raw materials / the reduction in the production schedule of core spare parts. 2) The 2022 government work report clearly strengthens the supply guarantee of raw materials and key parts, which is conducive to the stable and healthy development of the industrial chain and is expected to further stabilize market expectations. 3) It is expected that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars in 2022e will be about 5-5.5 million, and it is optimistic about the car enterprises with strong model product cycle and the continuous increase of new energy penetration / clear promotion path of intelligent electrification. Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely motor and Tesla are recommended for passenger cars, and Byd Company Limited(002594) , ideal are recommended; Recommended parts Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) .
Risk analysis: supply chain shortage intensifies and raw material prices rise; The expansion of production is less than expected; Industry demand is less than expected; The launch of new models is less than expected; The sales volume and gross profit margin were lower than expected; The cost control is less than expected, the epidemic situation is repeated, and the market risk.
