In theory, the premium of n-type TOPCON components should be 0.22-0.27 yuan / W compared with p-type components.
Taking the high support project scenario with complementary agriculture and light in Southern Hebei as an example, under the simulation conditions of pvsyst software, the single watt power generation capacity of n-type TOPCON module is 4.18% higher than that of p-type perc module, the land cost is saved by 3.75%, and the overall BOS cost is saved by 0.033 yuan / W. if the kwh power cost of p-type module is equal to that of n-type module, the module price is deduced, The reasonable price difference between the two is 0.229 yuan / W.
According to our calculation, taking Yunnan 152mw agricultural light complementary project as an example, when the price of p-type components is 1.88 yuan / W, the system cost reaches 3.96 yuan / W and the IRR reaches 5.99%. Under the same capacity, the first year power generation of n-type components is 3% higher than that of p-type double-sided components. Without considering the lower attenuation of n-type components, under the condition of the same rate of return, The system cost of n-type components can reach 4.12 yuan / W, and the cost of n-type components in this project is 0.056 yuan / W lower than that of p-type components. According to the same IRR, the premium of n-type TOPCON components can be 0.22 yuan / W compared with p-type components. If the lower first year attenuation and linear attenuation are considered, the premium of n-type TOPCON components can be 0.27 yuan / W compared with p-type components. In theory, a lower attenuation rate brings an additional premium of about 5 cents / W.
Generation gain provides flexibility for N-module premium
For the above Yunnan project, without considering the change of attenuation rate, we calculate that when the first year power generation gain of n-type is 1%, 1.5%, 2%, 2.5%, 3.0%, 3.5%, 4.0% and 4.5%, under the same IRR, the premium of n-type TOPCON module compared with p-type module can be 0.11, 0.14, 0.16, 0.20, 0.22, 0.25, 0.28 and 0.30 yuan / W. after linear fitting, the first year power generation gain increases by 0.5%, The premium of n-type TOPCON components can be increased by 2.8 points / W compared with p-type components.
The scenic base is mainly located in the three north areas with high natural conditions. The n-type module shows good power generation gain. According to the characteristics of desert areas, the n-type module has better performance in temperature coefficient, double-sided rate and initial light attenuation.
We believe that n-type components will perform well in the large base project. At present, the selling price of n-type TOPCON components is about 0.1-0.15 yuan / W higher than that of p-type components. Considering only the power generation gain in the first year, even without considering the change of attenuation rate, n-type TOPCON components will still have a good acceptance. Pay attention to the enterprises with leading layout of n-type TOPCON. It is recommended to pay attention to Jingke energy, Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(002865) 。 Continue to maintain the “overweight” rating for the power equipment industry.
Risk tips
Risk of sharp price reduction of products, sharp rise in the price of raw materials, lower than expected downstream demand, risk of intensified industry competition, systemic risk of the market, performance failure of recommended companies, etc.
