Baijiu sector firmly allocated value. Overseas geopolitical risk does not affect the Baijiu quality business model, consumption upgrading, head concentration, price and price driving logic is still there. Main line ① it is suggested to pay attention to the regional leaders with strong demand for 100200 price Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) ; Main line ② it is suggested to pay attention to certainty and underestimation Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ; Main line ③ it is suggested to pay attention to the sub high-end leaders Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) .
The short-term cost pressure of mass food remains. According to the price trend of raw materials, the prices of barley and aluminum cans are still high, the prices of soybean, oil, palm oil and pet continue to rise, and the cost pressure of the short-term mass food sub industry still exists. The leading enterprises have successively raised prices in Q4 of 2021. It is suggested to pay attention to the leaders of subdivided industries with full scale effect and strong cost transmission ability.
– Beer: the average price of barley increased by 22% in 2021, which is expected to remain high in 22 years, the high price of glass fell, and the price of aluminum was close to a new high. It is estimated that the cost of raw materials in the beer industry will remain high in the first half of 2022, but there is limited room to continue to rise; The overall price increase of the industry in the second half of 2021 was 3-10%. At present, it has been steadily implemented. Leading beer enterprises can also lock in the cost of some raw materials through long orders. At the same time, the scale effect is expected to hedge the price increase of raw materials. It is suggested to pay attention to Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) .
– Condiments: the prices of soybeans and palm oil continued to rise, and the marginal prices of molasses and green vegetable head fell. On the whole, there is still pressure on the cost side of the condiment industry in 2022. Most enterprises have successively implemented price adjustment plans. Under the cost pressure, we should focus on the leading enterprises with smooth price increase. It is suggested to pay attention to Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) .
– quick freezing and leisure marinated flavor: the rebound of pig price is expected to be limited, the price of chicken is expected to be stable, and there is little upward pressure on the cost of meat raw materials. Leisure flavor leader establishes a relatively perfect purchase inventory management system, which can effectively ease the upward pressure of raw materials. It is suggested to pay attention to Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) .
– soft drinks: the production of white sugar in China is expected to decrease slightly in the new pressing season, the recovery of consumption intensifies, the gap between supply and demand expands, and the price is upward, but the pressure on the manufacturing cost of downstream drinks is still controllable. The demand for soft drink packaging materials in the downstream of pet increased, and the short-term price continued to rise. With the expansion of PTA production capacity in the upstream, the pressure on the cost side of PET was relieved. It is suggested to pay attention to Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) .
– dairy products: the average price of raw milk will increase by about 13% in 2021. It is expected that the H1 milk price will remain high in 2022. The supplement of dairy cows will promote the increase of raw milk supply, and the milk price may gradually decline in the second half of the year. It is suggested to pay attention to Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) .
– snack food: in 2021, the prices of melon seeds and green peas increased in varying degrees, and the leading enterprises smoothed the cost side fluctuations by raising prices and locking prices; The high level of auxiliary palm oil continues to rise, and the price trend in the later stage mainly depends on the marginal change of the epidemic in Southeast Asia. It is suggested to pay attention to Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) .
Investment suggestion: the prices of main raw materials are still high, and the cost pressure of the short-term mass food sub industry still exists. The price of the leaders has been raised successively in Q4 of 2021. It is suggested to pay attention to the leaders of subdivided industries with full scale effect and strong cost transmission ability. Recommends a high level of high-end liquor Moutai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and regional leading liquor companies. At the same time, we should also note the elasticity of the Baijiu Baijiu after the economic warming, the trend of high-end beer is not changed, the recommendation of sector is recommended, and dairy products are concerned about Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) .
Risk tips: the adjustment of restrictive industrial policies exceeded expectations, the scattered occurrence and control of the epidemic affected the recovery of consumption scenarios, the risk of higher than expected rise in raw material costs, food safety risks, etc.
