Passenger transport demand will continue to be negatively impacted in January 2022. We observe the trend of passenger transport demand in the future by tracking the PMI index of non manufacturing industry, the zero growth rate of social security, the number of Chinese tourists in major countries and the import and export amount of duty-free goods. In February 2022, the PMI index of non manufacturing industry increased by 0.5pct to 51.6% month on month, of which the PMI of service industry increased by 0.2pct to 50.5% in February. The service industry continued to recover, but the boom level was low compared with the Spring Festival months in previous years; Driven by the consumption of Spring Festival holidays, the business activity index of railway transportation, air transportation, postal express, culture, sports and entertainment industries rose to a higher boom range of more than 57.0%, but the contact industries such as retail and residential services were relatively affected by the epidemic. The business activity index was in a low range of less than 45.0%, and the market activity was weak. In December 2021, the growth rate of social zero increased by 1.7% year-on-year. In terms of the average growth rate of two years, the growth rate of social zero in December was 3.1%, slightly lower than 4.4% in November. In December 2021, although the import and export amount of national duty-free goods decreased by 16.2% year-on-year, it still increased by 17% month on month. In January 2022, the number of Chinese tourists from Hong Kong, Taiwan and Japan continued to remain at a low level of less than 10000. In January 2022, the number of mainland residents visiting Australia was 642000, a month on month decrease of 15.8%.
The effectiveness of the steady growth measures has gradually emerged, and the freight demand is expected to stabilize. We observe the change trend of freight volume in the future by tracking the manufacturing PMI index, import and export growth, industrial added value growth and fixed asset investment growth. In February 2022, the manufacturing PMI index was 50.2%, with a month on month increase of 0.1pct, showing a super seasonal recovery, which is mainly due to the gradual improvement of the effectiveness of steady growth measures: 1. The new order index rebounded sharply and the release of market demand accelerated; 2. Although the production index has dropped, it is in line with the seasonal law; 3. Enterprises are expected to continue to pick up and improve their employment outlook. After the Spring Festival, the production activities of enterprises have gradually resumed, and a series of recent steady growth measures have been gradually implemented, and the enterprise market expectation has been further improved. In December 2021, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.3% year-on-year (the previous value was 3.8%), 11.9% over the same period of 19 years, and an average increase of 5.8% in two years (the previous value was 5.4%). From January to December 2021, the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment was 4.9% (the previous value was 5.2%), an increase of 8% over the same period of 19 years and an average increase of 3.9% in two years. In December 2021, the import and export amount increased by 20.3% year-on-year, decreased by 5.5pct month on month compared with November, and increased by 36.4% compared with the same period in 2019.
The RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar and the price of crude oil rose sharply. Based on the cost structure of the transportation company, we track the 7-day repo interest rate, LPR over five years and US dollar exchange rate to observe the change trend of financial expenses; Track the oil price to observe the change trend of operating cost. On the whole, the 7-day repo rate fluctuated slightly, and the LPR over five years was not adjusted in February of 22; The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has appreciated slightly and is currently maintained at about 6.3 yuan / US dollar; The price of Brent crude oil has risen sharply recently and is now close to $120 / barrel.
Investment suggestion: the government work report issued in 2022 emphasizes that various supporting policies for passenger transport and other industries should be tilted, and passenger transport companies such as airports are expected to benefit; At the same time, it continues to emphasize the development of rural e-commerce and express logistics distribution, and proposes to speed up the construction of international logistics system. The leading express logistics companies are expected to assume more social responsibilities and promote the development of the company. We maintain the industry’s “add on” rating, and we maintain the industry ” “hold on” rating. It is recommended that 601 Air China Limited(601111) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ and China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) .
Risk analysis: the duration of covid-19 epidemic exceeded market expectations; The sharp decline of macro economy leads to the decline of industry demand; Sino US trade frictions continue to ferment, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuates greatly; Crude oil prices rose sharply.
