This week’s view: the 2022 government work report conveys the signal of stabilizing the economy and real estate, and reiterates that “real estate is not fried”. Due to the implementation of urban policies to promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry, the central bank and the Bank Insurance Regulatory Commission issued documents to support the reasonable purchase credit demand of new citizens; At the same time, many places have loosened the real estate market successively. Zhengzhou second house loan has implemented the “loan but not house”, which is the first key city to loosen the “house and loan” since the tightening of regulation in 2016. It has a certain demonstration effect. It is expected that after the “two sessions”, the pace of urban implementation may be accelerated to promote the recovery of demand side confidence. In terms of investment suggestions, whether from the overall situation of “stable growth” or avoiding systemic risks in the industry, there is still room for improvement on the policy side, and the sector valuation is expected to continue to repair. In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal or contraction of some real estate enterprises in the painful period of this round, the overall pattern of the industry is expected to be optimized, and the market share and profitability of brand real estate enterprises with financing and control advantages are expected to be improved. The development sector pays attention to the leading real estate enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) and other leading real estate enterprises with strong short-term pressure resistance and prominent medium and long-term competitive advantages, and moderately pays attention to the elastic second-line targets, such as Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) . In terms of diversified business, the current valuation of the property management sector has reached a historical low and the cost performance is prominent. With the continuous deregulation of policies and the improvement of the capital side of development enterprises, it is also expected to bring high-quality property management valuation repair. We are optimistic about property management leaders with outstanding comprehensive strength, such as country garden service, poly property, xinchengyue service, Jinke service, etc, And commercial operators with strong asset light output strength, such as Xingsheng commerce.
Policy environment monitoring: 1) Zhengzhou: deregulation of “recognizing both houses and loans”, which is an important step in the implementation of urban policies; 2) 2022 government work report: stabilizing the economy still needs to stabilize the real estate, and the policy side is expected to continue to work
Market operation monitoring: 1) the turnover decreased month on month and faced pressure in the follow-up. This week (February 26-march 4), 37000 new houses were sold, down 9.8% month on month; 13000 second-hand houses were sold, up 10.1% month on month. The average daily turnover of new houses in February decreased by 29.3% year-on-year, 3.4pct narrower than that in January. Due to the cautious influence of supply and demand in the short term, subsequent transactions are expected to be under pressure. 2) The proportion of improved demand decreased month on month. In January 2022, among the transactions of commercial houses in 32 cities, the number of units above 90 square meters decreased by 1.1pct to 76.4% month on month. 3) Inventories fell month on month and tended to decline steadily in the short term. The inventory in 16 cities was 99.07 million square meters, down 1.8% month on month. Under the pressure of capital and property market, real estate enterprises tend to de convert the existing inventory, and the short-term inventory scale may decline steadily. 4) The land supply volume and premium rate declined, and the proportion of the second tier increased. Last week, the land supply and construction area of Baicheng was 29.149 million square meters and the transaction construction area was 17.639 million square meters, up 49% and down 11.8% month on month; The transaction premium rate was 1.3%, down 2.5pct month on month, of which the first, second and third tier transaction construction areas accounted for 6.3%, 39.5% and 54.2% respectively, down 4.3pct, up 16pct and down 11.7pct month on month respectively.
Capital market monitoring: 1) real estate bonds: 10.24 billion yuan of domestic real estate bonds were issued this week, a decrease of 610 million yuan month on month; The issuance of overseas bonds was US $200 million, a decrease of US $135 million month on month. 2) Trust: collective trust issued 3.41 billion yuan this week, a decrease of 1.51 billion yuan month on month. 3) Real estate stocks: the real estate sector rose 1.23% this week, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (- 1.68%); At present, the PE (TTM) of the real estate sector is 8.31 times, and the valuation is in the quantile of 16.3% in recent five years. The top three net capital inflows from Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stocks to the north this week were Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; The top three net capital inflows to the south are Vanke enterprises, China Overseas Development and Shimao Group.
Risk tips: 1) supply adequacy reduces risk; 2) Performance pressure risk of real estate enterprises; 3) Policy care is less than expected risk.
