Breeding sector: 1) live pigs: the central government started the collection and storage of 40000 tons, the pig price continued to decline, and the pig grain ratio continued to decline. On February 28, 2022, the price of three yuan pigs abroad was 12.5 yuan / kg, a year-on-year decrease of 54.38%; As of January 2022, the number of fertile sows in China has reached 42.9 million, with a month on month decrease of 0.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%. It has turned negative for the first time since June 2020. On February 25, 2022, the profit loss of outsourcing piglet breeding was 153.33 yuan / head, and the loss of self breeding was 481.8 yuan / head. The loss of self breeding and self breeding was large for 11 consecutive weeks. The price of soybean meal and other main feed raw materials was high, and the price ratio of pig grain continued to decline steadily during the week. On February 28, the central government officially launched the collection and storage of 40000 tons. From the performance of pig price, the role of price bottom support was limited. It is estimated that in the first half of 2022, the market will still face the peak brought by the inertia of reproduction. The upward probability of pig price is small, and the deep loss of breeding continues. At the same time, there is a trend of high-efficiency binary sows replacing low-efficiency ternary sows in the change of production capacity structure. Therefore, we believe that the de industrialization of production capacity will continue. Under the superposition of cost pressure and pig price pressure, the de industrialization of production capacity is expected to accelerate, and we continue to be optimistic about the layout opportunities on the left, Considering the flexibility and certainty of marketing and the space for cost reduction and other factors in the future, it is suggested to pay attention to the pig sector: Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) . 2) Poultry: weak consumer demand, chicken prices continue to callback. The consumption demand in the off-season was weak, and the price of yellow feather chicken continued to decline during the week. The average price of fast big chicken, medium speed chicken, native chicken and black bone chicken was 5.90 yuan / 6.93 yuan / 8.63 yuan / 7.76 yuan / 500g respectively on March 4, 2022, with a change of – 0.17% / – 1.28% / – 1.36% / + 1.04% on a weekly basis and – 16.78% / – 6.22% / – 2.60% / – 1.02% on a year-on-year basis. According to the data of the poultry branch of China Animal Husbandry Association, the stock of yellow feather chicken parents has basically decreased to the normal level in 2018. The supply contraction trend is expected to support the chicken price in the first half of the year. It is expected that there is limited room for the sharp decline of yellow chicken price. We are optimistic about the leader of yellow chicken breeding industry with good cost control ability and growth. Key recommendations: Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , It is suggested to pay attention to: Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) . 3) Beef cattle breeding: in September 2020, the general office of the State Council issued the opinions on promoting the high-quality development of animal husbandry, which put forward the goal of “maintaining the annual self-sufficiency rate of beef and mutton at about 85%. There is a large gap between supply and demand in the industry. Pay attention to the opportunities of large-scale beef cattle breeding. It is suggested to pay attention to: Pengdu Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(002505) .
Animal protection sector: the deadline for the new version of GMP is approaching, and the leader of R & D + production + market advantage will benefit. Under the background of the effective promotion of the policy of “fight first and then supplement” and the gradual and complete abolition of the policy of political seedling collection in 2025, veterinary biological products usher in the era of market-oriented development; Since July 2020, there has been a comprehensive “ban on resistance” in feed, and “limit resistance” and “reduce resistance” in breeding. The demand for high-end therapeutic veterinary chemicals has ushered in rapid growth; The code for quality management of veterinary drug production (revised in 2020) was issued on April 21, 2020 and will be implemented from June 1, 2020. By May 31, 2022, the backward industry capacity that has not reached the new target has not been reached or has been eliminated, the industry access threshold has been raised, and the competition pattern is expected to be optimized rapidly. In the medium and long term, industry leaders with the advantages of joint research and development of front-end scientific research institutes + high-quality production capacity + market channels are expected to make full profits. Key recommendations: China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) – market seedlings and high-end chemical drugs support high performance growth. It is suggested to pay attention to: Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) , Hvsen Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300871) , Tianjin Ringpu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(300119) .
Seed industry sector: Document No. 1 and the government work report of the two sessions again mention food security and pay attention to the long-term layout opportunities of seed industry. The issue of Document No. 1 in 2022 and the government work report of the two sessions on March 5 once again emphasized the theme of food security and seed industry revitalization, and the action plan for seed industry revitalization was adopted in July 2021; In November 2021, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas issued the decision of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas on amending some seed industry regulations (Draft for comments), adding relevant rules on the approval of genetically modified crop varieties; In addition, with the completion of the revision of the seed law in 2021, the threshold of the approval standard of corn and other varieties is raised, and the trend of industrial intellectual property protection and leading concentration is expected to appear. We are optimistic about the industry leaders with variety advantages and R & D advantages. We suggest to pay attention to: Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) .
Risk tips: sudden epidemics or natural disasters, repeated covid-19 epidemics, and the implementation progress of industrial policies is less than expected.
