CITIC media’s overall investment environment fell by 0.4% this week. From the perspective of the annual market, we believe that the prosperity of yuancosmic industry is safe, benchmarking overseas, the development of global yuancosmic industry is accelerating, and yuancosmic investment will be able to be implemented into the enterprise financial report. It is suggested to focus on it. In addition, when the external environment fluctuates greatly, it is suggested to pay attention to the publication of defensive sectors. After years of intensive policy influence, the media sector has obvious valuation advantages. The Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) trends such as yuancosmos are expected to bring marginal business increment. Individual stocks with good fundamentals for a long time have reached a better price position from the perspective of medium-term allocation. The game section focuses on Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) , G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) , Jiangsu Zitian Media Technology Co.Ltd(300280) ; The video section recommends Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) , Kwai, Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) . Bubble mart is recommended in the field of fashion play; Yuancosmic sector focuses on Visual China Group Co.Ltd(000681) , Hylink Digital Solution Co.Ltd(603825) , Shanghai Fengyuzhu Culture Technology Co.Ltd(603466) , Bluefocus Intelligent Communications Group Co.Ltd(300058) , Three’S Company Media Group Co.Ltd(605168) .
Long video: iqiyi released Q4 financial report, aiming to break even in non GAAP operation in 22 years. 21q4 achieved revenue of 7.389 billion yuan (yoy-0.9%, qoq-2.6%), including advertising revenue of 1.664 billion yuan (yoy-10.5%, QoQ + 0.3%) and member revenue of 4.121 billion yuan (YoY + 7.4%, qoq-3.9%). The growth of member revenue was mainly due to the increase of arppu value. The average monthly income of 21q4 members was 14.16 yuan (YoY + 13.7%). The decline in content costs and sales management expenses narrowed the operating loss. The content cost / revenue of 21q4 was 66.3% (yoy-2.1pct), and the sales management expense ratio was 14.8% (yoy-2.9pct). In 2022, the management aims to achieve the profit and loss balance of non GAAP operation in the whole year and realize the profit and loss balance of non GAAP operation in the single quarter as soon as possible. We believe that iqiyi has achieved initial results in reducing costs and increasing efficiency through the adjustment of organizational structure and the price increase of membership fees, plus the gradual realization of the decline of actor costs in the early stage. At present, the competition of long video platforms is slowing down, and the future strategic focus will focus on the improvement of profitability and business efficiency.
Games: in 2021, South Korea’s mobile games generated $5.72 billion in revenue (sensortower, yoy + 6.5%), of which RPG mobile games accounted for 66%. South Korea is an important area for Chinese mobile game developers to go to sea. In 2021, a total of 33 Chinese mobile games were shortlisted as the top 100 in South Korea, with a total revenue of US $980 million, accounting for 22.3%. Among them, Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) “song of Cloud City” and “call me big shopkeeper” ranked 7th / 14th respectively, and Ourpalm Co.Ltd(300315) “one punch Superman” ranked 8th.
Metauniverse: 1) byte beating and coding to build VR ecology. According to “LatePost”, Song Binghua, Wu Zuomin and other Pico people will be transferred to Pico, and the number of Pico teams has increased from 200 in September 2021 to more than 300 tiktok. In addition, Qualcomm and bytecode announced cooperation on the development of hardware devices, software platforms and developer tools to jointly build XR ecology. We believe that at present, China’s consumer VR is in the early stage of development, and there is still a large gap between the content level and overseas. Due to the low penetration rate of hardware, VR content end practitioners cannot obtain revenue from consumers to form a positive cycle. Therefore, the investment of large hardware manufacturers is particularly important in this path. At present, Tencent has acquired Black Shark mobile phone and established a VR team. Netease has also launched VR content side applications. Under the leadership of large manufacturers, China’s VR ecology is expected to accelerate its development. 2) Se has reached cooperation with blockchain game sandbox. Squareenix game developers introduced their “Dungeon Siege” into their virtual world to provide players with an interactive RPG experience. The sandbox, a blockchain game, has been valued at US $5 billion. At present, there are more than 1 million Maus. Previously, it has reached cooperation with Ubisoft, SM Entertainment Group and other companies to jointly build a “play2create” meta universe ecology.
Trendy blind box: Analysys released market insight analysis of China’s toy collection industry in 2021. Analysys expects that in 2025, the scale of China’s toy collection will exceed 150 billion (28 billion in 2019), the core consumer group will exceed 100 million (30 million in 2019), and the consumer group of Pan collection toys will exceed 360 million. The expected increase is mainly due to the contribution of age and regional circle expansion. Manual (67.37%), blind box (60.88%) and assembled building blocks (60.11%) are the top 3 categories most frequently consumed by medium players in the past year, of which the per capita annual consumption of blind box category is 1581 yuan. From the perspective of decision-making factors, appearance design, price and brand are the main aspects concerned by toy collection players.
Risk tips: policy supervision risk, increased competition risk, and the impact of the epidemic exceeds the expected risk.
