Securities: market transactions fell slightly this week, and the average daily turnover decreased by 90 billion to 0.97 trillion month on month; The balance of the two financial institutions (3.3) increased slightly to 1.73 trillion. The weekend government work report set the expected GDP growth target of about 5.5% in 2022, higher than the previous general expectation, which is expected to boost market confidence; In order to achieve the predetermined goal, the fiscal policy will be more active, and the scale of expenditure is expected to expand by more than 2 trillion compared with 2021. It can also be expected that the monetary policy is stable and loose. Multiple measures will work together, and positive changes will be transmitted from the economic fundamentals to the capital market, so as to improve the performance and valuation expectations of the sector. At the same time, the “establishment of financial stability guarantee fund” is mentioned for the first time in the government work report. At present, China has insurance guarantee fund, securities investor protection fund, trust industry guarantee fund, deposit insurance fund and other systems, and how to locate the financial stability guarantee fund in the future is the focus of attention. We believe that the fund may be presented in two forms: 1 It is most feasible to integrate the guarantee funds of banking, securities, insurance, trust and other financial sub industries and manage them uniformly at the level of the government and the central bank; 2. If the size and proportion of the newly added institutions are different, they will become the core focus of each institution according to the current size and proportion. To sum up, at present, under the complex situation outside China and the downward pressure of the economy, with the superposition of financial opening to the outside world and system reform, the financial stability fund may become a wonderful chess to resist the spread of financial risks and thicken the safety cushion of the industry, but the establishment of the fund may have a certain impact on the performance of the main body of the industry.
The “two sessions” may bring more surprises to the capital market, and the annual report season is about to open. At the current time, it is suggested to pay attention to the value targets with high certainty of performance. The core focus of the industry is still on the main line of wealth management, and the marginal improvement of the consignment of financial products will help the valuation repair of leading targets. The investment banking “blowout” driven by the comprehensive registration system is expected to become the most deterministic growth opportunity in the medium and long term of the securities sector. The project supply exceeds the carrying capacity of investment banks to a certain extent, which is expected to promote the pricing ability of securities companies. It is suggested that we continue to focus on the “medium and long-term” growth opportunities of wealth management.
Insurance: from the perspective of the industry, the current recovery progress of property insurance is still faster than that of life insurance, and the fundamentals of the life insurance sector have not been significantly improved. Considering the implementation of the new regulations of the second generation and the repeated epidemic, and the massive loss of superimposed agents, it is still difficult for insurance enterprises to develop their industry; In addition, the change of residents’ consumption concept and consumption structure continues to reduce the demand for margin long-term guaranteed products, so it is too early to judge the inflection point of the industry. At present, the lengthening of the investment cycle of the subject matter of insurance is a high probability event. We believe that if the ten-year bond interest rate tends to rise, life insurance companies will benefit from higher interest rate elasticity, and valuation repair is still a high probability event; If the interest rate decreases steadily, the property insurance subject with relatively good fundamentals will be more dominant.
Sector performance: during the five trading days from February 28 to March 4, the non bank sector fell by 1.44% as a whole. According to the industry classification standard of Shenwan, the non bank ranked 18 / 31 of all industries; Among them, the securities sector fell 1.23%, outperforming the CSI 300 index (- 1.68%), and the insurance sector fell 2.05%, outperforming the CSI 300 index. In terms of stocks, the top five gainers for brokers are Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ (0.00%), New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) (- 0.21%), China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) (- 0.86%) China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) （-1.05%）、 Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) （-2.53%）。
Risk tips: macroeconomic downside risk, policy risk, market risk and liquidity risk.
