Key investment points
Zhengzhou introduced people, shed reform, reduced down payment and took multiple measures to comprehensively stimulate rigid demand and improve house purchase demand. On March 1, Zhengzhou issued a new policy of “saving the city”, including 19 measures. 1) Emancipate the demand side and significantly promote the release of house purchase demand. The deregulation of purchase and loan restrictions and the restart of monetized resettlement are of great benefit to boost the demand for house purchase. Specifically: first, expand demand, relax purchase restrictions, and vigorously support four types of house purchase demand, including college students, migrant workers, the elderly and improvement; Second, encourage the monetized resettlement of shed reform and transform resettlement houses through government repurchase; Third, strengthen credit support, relax loan restrictions on second homes and guide the reduction of mortgage interest rates. 2) Stabilize the supply side and reduce the inventory risk in some areas. The first is to help enterprises relieve difficulties, allow the deferred payment of land transfer fees, strengthen credit support such as M & A loans and development loans, allow the letter of guarantee to offset the pre-sale funds, and shorten the time limit for administrative approval. The second is to reasonably control the supply scale of new houses and dynamically adjust the supply of homestead according to the decontamination cycle of the area. In the first two months of 2022, the real estate market is not optimistic. Under this background, Zhengzhou has issued the “rescue” policy, which plays a strong leading role in other cities, and more cities are expected to follow up in the future.
In February, China’s real estate market continued its downward trend, superimposed with the pre cooling of the market during the Spring Festival, and the year-on-year decline of enterprise sales was further expanded compared with January. In February, the top 100 real estate enterprises in the industry only realized a sales trading amount of 463.5 billion yuan, down 47% month on month and 49% year-on-year, more than nine percentage points higher than that in January. The sales area is not optimistic. In February, the top 100 real estate enterprises in the industry achieved a sales area of 32.43 million square meters, down 14% month on month and 43% year-on-year. In February, the sales of top real estate enterprises continued to decline. The sales amount of top5 / top6-10 / top11-20 in a single month decreased by 38% / 47% / 54% year-on-year. The top 20 real estate enterprises showed negative growth year-on-year. Only Longhu group, China Construction Development International, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) and Rongxin group achieved positive growth month on month.
The government work report insists on housing without speculation and emphasizes the protection of housing demand. On March 5, the fifth session of the 13th National People’s Congress was held. 1) the implementation of the “stable real estate speculation and housing” policy will continue to meet the healthy demand of the real estate industry. At the same time, the implementation of the “stable real estate speculation and housing” policy will continue to reflect the healthy demand of the real estate industry. 1) the implementation of the “stable real estate speculation and housing” policy will continue to meet the healthy demand of the real estate industry this year. According to the statement made by the Ministry of housing and urban rural development in February, the supply of affordable rental housing will be greatly increased this year. It is hoped that 2.4 million affordable rental housing units (rooms) will be built and raised throughout the year, 100000 public rental housing units will be raised and 1.2 million shantytowns will be reconstructed. At the same time, many cities have recently relaxed real estate regulation and guided real estate transactions to gradually return to normalization. 2) Meet the reasonable purchase needs of new citizens and give them some policy support. For example, when new citizens buy their first house in non restricted cities, the down payment ratio can be implemented according to the minimum 20%, and the mortgage interest rate can be reduced. It is worth noting that the real estate tax has not been mentioned in the government work report of the two sessions. We believe that the pilot work of real estate tax may be postponed and will be implemented after the real estate market gradually returns to stability.
We believe that the main line of investment 2) Property management enterprises: Country Garden service, China Resources Vientiane life, Jinke service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, Baolong business, etc; 3) Track transformation Enterprises: Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) etc; 4) Real estate brokerage Enterprises: shells, etc.
Risk tips: project delivery risk, project sales collection risk, industry policy regulation risk.
