Key investment points:
Zhou’s view: we believe that the attitude of the “two sessions” on real estate and infrastructure exceeded expectations, and steady growth can be expected. In the field of real estate, it is consistent with the substantial relaxation of real estate regulation in many places recently. At the same time, it speeds up the construction of rental affordable housing to provide new increment, and the turning point of real estate is gradually approaching; The capital construction side special debt was issued 3.65 trillion yuan in advance, while the fiscal expenditure increased by 2 trillion yuan year-on-year. In addition, in the early stage, the Ministry of finance has issued a new special debt limit of 1.46 trillion yuan in 2022 to all localities in advance. With financial support, the implementation of supporting projects will give full play to the role of counter cyclical regulation. At present, with the gradual recovery of demand, the undervalued and stable growth sectors (glass and cement) in the first quarter are expected to walk out of stronger relative returns. In March, with the further recovery of demand, cement (East China clinker has increased by 80 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai cement prices took the lead in raising prices) and glass (glass prices increased by Shenzhen Jt Automation Equipment Co.Ltd(300400) yuan / ton after the festival) are expected to start a new round of price increases, The upward revision of performance expectation will be the biggest catalyst for the stock price of the current cycle; Secondly, with the substantial relaxation of local real estate regulation, Q1 real estate is expected to hit the bottom, while the bad credit impairment of consumer building materials will gradually come out with the advent of the annual report season. The consumer building materials enterprises after the early adjustment will reproduce new allocation opportunities, and the leading enterprises have their own advantages α Advantages, the industry has plenty of room to go up after reaching the bottom.
Consumption of building materials: due to the marginal relaxation of urban policies, the inflection point of the real estate industry is gradually approaching. The “two sessions” re mentioned that real estate should be based on urban policies, which coincides with the substantial relaxation of real estate regulation in many places recently, and the real estate fundamentals are expected to reach the bottom and stabilize quickly; The negative credit impairment of consumer building materials worried by the market in the early stage will also be gradually implemented with the disclosure of the annual report. The trend of increasing the concentration of consumer building materials leaders is determined, and the growth is still stable, which provides a new allocation opportunity after the early adjustment. Waterproof materials that run through the construction cycle and are catalyzed by industry standards are preferred (pay attention to Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ); The second is the pipe faucet ( Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ), pipe faucet (China Liansu) and ceramic tile faucet ( Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ) with excellent business quality, and the gypsum board ( Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) ) benefiting from the completion cycle.
Cement: the demand gradually recovers, and the price rise of cement begins. With the weakening of rain and snow weather and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, the clinker along the Yangtze River Delta rose for three rounds, with a cumulative price increase of 80 yuan / ton. The clinker in South China also began to raise the price. In the off-season of this year, the staggered peak production was implemented in place, and the cement in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai took the lead in raising the price under low inventory. In the first quarter, all localities moderately advanced infrastructure investment and solidly promoted the implementation of 102 major projects in the 14th five year plan. In the early stage, the Ministry of finance has issued a quota of 1.46 trillion new special debt in 2022 to all localities in advance, and the annual special debt is expected to be issued 3.65 trillion. At the same time, fiscal expenditure increased by 2 trillion year-on-year, with financial support; At the same time, the gradual implementation of investment in key infrastructure projects in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong and other places will boost the demand in the beginning of spring. The high growth expectation of infrastructure investment in the first quarter is increased. Under the background of steady growth, the cement sector with undervalued value and high profit is expected to usher in a restless market in spring. It is suggested to pay attention to the faucet Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) and the elastic subject Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) .
Glass: the replenishment of traders slowed down, and the spot price fluctuated downward. This week, the replenishment of traders slowed down, and the short-term spot price fluctuated. We believe that due to the influence of rainy weather and repeated epidemics in the South recently, the demand in the downstream has recovered slowly, while the demand in the North has not yet recovered. Most processing plants in North China have officially resumed work after March 15. The overall demand has not yet fully recovered, and the removal of the industry to the warehouse has been temporarily slowed down. With the entry of March, the impact of the weather weakened, and it is expected that the demand will return to normal in the middle and late March. At present, the inventory of the industry is still at a normal level, and the enterprises have a strong willingness to stabilize the price, waiting for a new round of replenishment in the downstream after the demand recovers. From a macro perspective, the demand for real estate completion remains resilient, with a real estate sales area of more than 1.7 billion square meters in 18-21 years. With the arrival of the housing delivery cycle and the background of guaranteed housing delivery, new construction accelerates the transmission of support demand to completion; Recently, the real estate policies of local governments have continued to relax. Due to the effect of urban policies, the real estate may gradually appear. The orders postponed since the second half of last year may usher in a centralized release, which is optimistic about a new round of volume and price rise of glass in the future. At the same time, the industrial chain extension of leading enterprises is gradually emerging, the proportion of growth businesses is gradually increasing, and the periodic fluctuation is gradually smoothed (it is recommended to pay attention to Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , CSG A and Xinyi Glass).
Glass fiber: the price of electronic yarn is weak, and the price of roving remains high and stable. After the festival, the lower reaches of roving just need to actively replenish the warehouse, the shipment of enterprises is gradually restored, the inventory of the industry continues to operate at a low level, and the price remains stable at a high level; The price of electronic yarn continues to decline. The mainstream price of electronic yarn G75 is about 10000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of electronic cloth is about 3.7-4 yuan / meter. We believe that roving demand remains strong, and the rapid growth of new energy vehicles supports the strong demand for thermoplastic yarn in 2022; Recently, the wind power installed capacity in some regions is planned to increase rapidly, and the installed capacity of wind power in the 14th five year plan may exceed the expectation again, so as to stimulate the demand of upstream and downstream industrial chains and wind power yarn, and the demand for high-end products in 2022 may be in full force; According to the tracked industrial production expansion plan, in 2022, the new supply is limited, the supply and demand of the industry remain matched, and the high outlook of the industry may continue or far exceed expectations. At the same time, the leading enterprises have capacity expansion, and the continuous high price operation brings high performance elasticity (it is recommended to pay attention to China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) ).
Risk warning: the investment in fixed assets is lower than expected; The aggravation of trade conflict leads to the obstruction of sales volume of export enterprises; The margin of environmental protection supervision is relaxed, and the supply contraction is lower than expected; The sharp rise in the price of raw materials has brought cost pressure.
