Key investment points:
New energy vehicles have ushered in a period of rapid growth, driving the rapid increase in motor demand. In 2021, the global total sales volume of new energy vehicles was 6.75 million, with a year-on-year increase of 108%, of which the total sales volume in China was 3.521 million, with a year-on-year increase of 157.5%, making it the largest market in the world. As one of the three electric driving motors, it has also entered a period of rapid growth. According to our calculation, by 2025, China's drive motor market space will reach 36.138 billion yuan, and the five-year CAGR will be 54.6%.
The continuous innovation of motor technology brings development opportunities to the industry. Electric vehicle motors at home and abroad are mainly developed in the following aspects: high power density, diversified motor cooling modes, low cost, high integration, good vibration and noise characteristics and high efficiency. These new motor technologies will not only improve the power of a single motor, but also increase the value of a single motor.
The driving motor is expected to see both volume and price rise. In order to improve the power, the flat wire motor has become the general trend. In 2021, half of the top 20 models in China have begun to assemble or select flat wire motors. At the same time, the penetration rate of dual motor models is also further improving. It is expected that the penetration rate of dual motor models will reach 25% by 2025. With the increase of the penetration rate of flat wire motor and the proportion of dual motor models, we judge that the drive motor industry will usher in a simultaneous increase in volume and price in 2022.
The scale effect of driving motor is gradually released. The drive motor industry is a capital intensive industry. Its production depends on automation lines and has a large fixed investment. The corresponding investment for every 100000 sets of production capacity is about 69 million yuan; The development cost of each motor is not low, and the development cost accounts for about 10% of the total cost. We believe that in the future, with the appearance of scale effect, profits will be greatly improved.
Investment suggestions:
We focus on the third-party leading suppliers of motors with leading technological advantages and scale effect, and recommend: Zhejiang Founder Motor Co.Ltd(002196) , Zhongshan Broad-Ocean Motor Co.Ltd(002249) , Keli Motor Group Co.Ltd(002892) .
Risk tips:
1) risk that the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; 2) The risk of intensified industry competition; 3) Upstream raw material price rise risk.
