Key investment points:
Current key recommendations: (1) cement sector: the 2022 government work report puts forward the goal of GDP growth of 5.5% in 2022. At the same time, it is mentioned that 3.65 trillion yuan of special bonds of local governments will be arranged this year. Infrastructure has become the primary starting point for stabilizing the economy. The continuous commencement of major engineering projects in various provinces and cities has supported the demand for cement. At present, the national transportation construction projects have been started and resumed. With the continuous improvement of downstream demand, the cement price in most areas began to rebound. (2) Glass fiber sector: the demand of China’s roving market has started fairly recently, and the shipment of each factory is relatively stable. The short-term supply side has little change, and the demand support is good. The recent shipment of electronic yarn market is relatively stable, but after the ignition production line is put into operation in the early stage, the supply has increased slightly. In addition, the amount of new orders in the terminal market is limited, and the market supply and demand performance is weak. However, supported by the cost of electronic yarn, it is expected that there is little room for price adjustment in the middle and later stage. (3) Glass sector: under the background of double carbon policy, photovoltaic glass ushers in demand support. At the same time, the continuous improvement of double glass penetration also brings new growth rate to photovoltaic glass. However, affordable Internet access promotes industrial cost reduction and efficiency increase, puts forward higher requirements for enterprise technology and cost control, and benefits industry leaders with technology and cost advantages. At present, the valuation of the building materials industry is relatively low and the safety margin is high, so it is rated as “recommended”.
Recommended cement sector: (1) macro aspect: at present, infrastructure construction has become the primary focus of stabilizing the economy. Major engineering projects in various provinces and cities continue to start activities, which has formed a support for the demand for cement. In addition, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development recently set the tone for real estate regulation in 2022, saying that this year we should maintain the smooth operation of the real estate market, maintain the continuity and stability of regulation policies, enhance the accuracy and coordination of regulation policies, promote the structural reform of housing supply side, vigorously increase the supply of affordable rental housing and vigorously promote “new urban construction”, It is expected to further boost cement demand. (2) Fundamentals: this week, the national cement market price fluctuated downward, down 0.3% month on month. Due to the repeated impact of rainy weather and epidemic situation, some areas have not fully resumed work, the recovery of demand is relatively slow, and prices have fallen. Prices in some areas have also risen. With the commencement and resumption of infrastructure projects, the downstream demand for cement will continue to rise. It is expected that cement prices in most areas will begin to rebound. At present, it is recommended to take the lead in the cement area Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , focusing on Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) .
Recommended glass fiber industry: the demand of China’s roving market has started fairly recently, and the shipment of each factory is relatively stable. The short-term supply side has little change, the demand support is good, the mentality of the industry is relatively calm, and the price of short-term mainstream products may be expected to rise. The recent shipment of electronic yarn market is relatively stable, but the market supply and demand performance is weak. During the week, the G75 price of electronic yarn of most factories further dropped, and the market price of electronic cloth also decreased. It is expected that the short-term market price may stabilize. In the medium and long term, the macro level will continue to promote the large-scale and high-quality development of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation. Recently, the opinions of the people’s Government of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region on promoting the high-end, intelligent and green development of manufacturing industry (neizheng Fa [2022] No. 6) was announced. According to the opinions, Inner Mongolia will focus on the development of two 100 billion level industries: new energy equipment manufacturing and new energy vehicle manufacturing, so as to form a new engine for driving the development of manufacturing industry. It is expected to support the demand for glass fiber. In terms of individual stocks, recommend industry leaders China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , and pay attention to Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) .
Glass industry: this week, the float glass market is still dominated by digesting social inventory, and the production and sales of float factory remain low. Downstream demand starts slowly, most of them have not recovered to full load, the problem of lack of orders still exists, and the inventory in the middle and downstream still needs time to digest. Supply: some production lines will have cold repair plans next week, but the capacity supply will still be high. The inventory growth of float factory will accelerate, and the inventory pressure of some factories will increase. In terms of demand: the improvement speed of terminal funds is slow, the release of new orders is limited, the order performance of downstream processing plants in the short term is flat, and it is difficult to return to the normal operating rate for the time being. The market wait-and-see mentality is obvious. In terms of cost, the rising cost of some fuels has raised the production cost of float plants in some areas. The comprehensive profit decreased slightly, but the profit level is still considerable. Focus on the industry leader Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) with cost advantage, and Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) , Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Xinyi Glass, CSG a, Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) .
Other consumer building materials: the waterproof industry has broad development prospects and the market stock is increasing. After the introduction of new industry standards, the market is expected to be structurally adjusted and the concentration is further improved. Under the background of carbon neutralization, photovoltaic roofs are gradually rising, and the service life requirements of photovoltaic houses facing the waterproof layer have become a new growth point of the waterproof industry. In addition, the recovery expectation of infrastructure and real estate end storage is optimistic about the improvement of the demand of the waterproof industry. Focus on Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) . Recommend the gypsum board leader Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , the company’s “one body and two wings” layout is accelerated, and the waterproof and coating sectors are developing rapidly. We are optimistic about the future performance growth. The pipe sector focuses on the leader Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Hong Kong stock and China Liansu. The coating sector pays attention to Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) .
Risk warning: the construction progress of infrastructure projects is less than expected; The market demand is less than expected; Focus on the company’s performance not meeting expectations; The epidemic has repeatedly affected the economy; Adverse changes have taken place in the macro environment.
