One week resumption:
This week, power equipment and new energy (CITIC level I) fell 2.10%, 0.42 percentage points behind the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. In terms of overall market performance, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.11%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 1.68%, and the gem index fell 3.75%. Among the sub sectors of power equipment, electrical equipment fell by 2.70%, wind power rose by 0.66% and photovoltaic rose by 2.67%. Photovoltaic:
1. Under the background of increasing demand boom, the price of crystalline silicon industry chain continues to rise. According to the statistics of the silicon industry branch, under the background of relatively tight supply and demand in stages, the price of silicon material has increased for seven consecutive weeks, and the average transaction price of single crystal re feeding this week has exceeded 245000 yuan / ton; In addition, central further raised the price of silicon wafers this week (products of different sizes increased by about 0.9% ~ 1.37%), and the spot price of battery wafers also increased (according to PV InfoLink data). The price of photovoltaic crystalline silicon industry chain continued to rise.
2. The certainty of high growth of photovoltaic installed capacity in 2022 is further enhanced. (1) Germany plans to achieve the goal of 100% renewable energy power generation by 2035, 15 years ahead of the previous goal. Among them, it plans to achieve 200GW photovoltaic installed capacity by 2035, which is expected to lead the EU to jointly accelerate the development of new energy. (2) In the 2022 government work report, it is proposed to promote the planning and construction of large-scale scenery base and its supporting regulatory power supply. CPIA expects that China’s new photovoltaic installed capacity will be 75 ~ 90gw in 2022. (3) The situation in Russia and Ukraine has boosted the continuous rise of energy prices. The prices of natural gas and oil have reached a recent high. The rapid rise in the price of traditional energy will also promote overseas countries to accelerate the transformation to wind and solar renewable energy.
3. In terms of investment: (1) the demand boom in 2022q1 is improving, pushing up the price of products in all links. With the release of upstream capacity in Q2, the price of the industrial chain is expected to decline, adding the end of the interest rate increase cycle in the first stage. At the same time, China accelerates the construction of new infrastructure (photovoltaic, etc.), the photovoltaic industrial chain ushers in better allocation opportunities, and focuses on recommending the leaders with poor expectations in the market Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , It is suggested to pay attention to Jingke energy. (2) In 2022q1, the price of some auxiliary materials may rise due to the release of demand, the price rise of raw materials, the shortage of structural supply and demand and other factors. Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , especially Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) . (3) Under the background of industrial chain game, the supply and demand situation of large-scale products is relatively good. 210 product leaders are recommended from bottom to top. At the same time, the semiconductor silicon wafer business has ushered in a high-speed development Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) . (4) Overseas demand and distributed photovoltaic demand will be released first in the process of module price decline, with emphasis on Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) .
Wind power:
1. The bidding price of wind turbines in China continues to decline, and the domestic substitution + Dual sea strategy is the long-term development direction of the wind power industry. Recently, the bidding prices of China’s sea breeze and land breeze have continued to decline (in terms of sea breeze, the quotation of Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) including tower of zheneng Taizhou No. 1 sea breeze project is 3548 yuan / kW; in terms of land breeze, the quotation of prospective energy including tower of China Resources Power UTRA Zhongqi project is as low as 1889 yuan / kW), When the bidding price drops rapidly, if the enterprise wants to maintain its profitability, it needs to open source (sea + offshore wind power) and reduce expenditure (localization of parts and components and cost reduction); In the context of large-scale and domestic substitution, the process of sea wind parity is expected to accelerate. In the future, if the national level also continues to strengthen the development and approval of projects in sea areas under state control, we believe that the new installed capacity of China’s offshore wind power during the 14th five year plan period is expected to exceed expectations.
2. In terms of investment: (1) Haifeng construction is expected to exceed expectations and under the logic of domestic substitution, recommend Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , pay attention to Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) ; (2) Focus on Zhejiang Xcc Group Co.Ltd;(603667) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) ; (3) Under the logic of profit recovery: focus on Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Sany Heavy energy (to be listed).
Risk tips:
The progress of issuing policies is less than expected; The recovery of fan bidding price is lower than expected, and the price of raw materials in the industrial chain fluctuates; The investment and information construction of the State Grid are lower than expected, resulting in the risk of blocking the installation and landing.
