Weekly view:
The government work report emphasizes the protection of people’s housing needs: on March 5, the government work report pointed out that we should continue to ensure people’s housing needs. Adhere to the positioning of housing, housing and non speculation, explore a new development model, adhere to the simultaneous development of rental and purchase, accelerate the development of long-term rental housing market and promote the construction of indemnificatory housing. Support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations, and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies.
The government work report maintains the consistency with the policies of the central economic work conference. Compared with 2021, the position of this year’s “three stable” policy has been adjusted to the support of housing demand after the location of housing is not speculation. We expect that in areas with excess supply, precise demand easing policies will continue to be introduced rapidly and intensively.
Three places released centralized land supply information: 1) on March 4, Jinan announced that it planned to launch 82 residential and commercial land, totaling 2.93 million square meters; 2) On March 2, Xiamen launched 10 residential land with a total construction area of 720000 square meters, starting from March 24; 3) On March 1, Wuhan announced the launch of 11 plots with a total of 320000 square meters, which will be unveiled from March 31.
In terms of plot quality, the transfer of Wuhan is mainly based on the central urban area project, and Xiamen has increased the number of plots on the island; In terms of transfer rules, Wuhan cancelled the rules of competitive construction and self-supporting, increased the profit margin of enterprises, and Xiamen relaxed the payment cycle. The core problem of the East and South China markets where Xiamen and Wuhan are located is that supply exceeds demand. We believe that the relaxation of supply side policies is conducive to increasing the enthusiasm of enterprises to acquire land, so as to increase market supply.
We believe that in 2022, the real estate sector will usher in investment opportunities with continuous improvement of policies and continuous optimization of the competition pattern of real estate enterprises. Three main lines are recommended: 1) leading real estate enterprises under the structural differentiation of financing environment: Green City China, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; 2) Regional deep ploughing private enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) ; 3) High rated and stable private enterprises: Xuhui holding group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) .
Industry tracking
Sales review (02.26-03.04): focus on monitoring 33 cities, with a total transaction area of 3.471 million m2, down 11.1% from last week; In 2022, a total of 28.765 million square meters were sold, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 34.0%. Among them, the first tier cities sold 602000 square meters, down 17.9% from last week. In 2022, a total of 5.888 million square meters were sold, down 24.0% year-on-year; Second tier cities sold 1.68 million square meters, down 11.2% from last week. In 2022, a total of 13.999 million square meters were sold, down 16.2% year-on-year; The third tier cities sold 1.189 million square meters, down 7.0% from last week. In 2022, a total of 8.877 million square meters were sold, down 53.7% year-on-year.
Land supply (02.21-02.27): the planned construction area of land and homestead supply in Baicheng is 8.93 million m2. In 2022, the cumulative supply of planned construction area is 48.26 million m2, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 61.1% and a supply-demand ratio of 1.06.
In terms of land listing price, the average listing floor price of land supplied by Baicheng is 11824 yuan / m2, and the average listing price in recent four weeks is 8295 yuan / m2, an increase of 125.0% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 135.9%.
Land transaction (02.21-02.27): the planned construction area of residential land in Baicheng is 3.71 million square meters, with a cumulative transaction of 45.55 million square meters in 2022, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 64.6%.
In terms of land transaction floor price and premium rate, the average transaction floor price of residential land in Baicheng was 1372 yuan / m2, a month on month decrease of 90.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 72.5%, and the overall premium rate was 0.5%. In 2022, the average floor price was 4074 yuan / m2, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4%, and the premium rate was 3.3%, a decrease of 13.0 percentage points compared with the same period last year.
Risk warning event: the financing environment is tighter than expected; The regulatory policy was tightened more than expected.
