Core view
The global demand for power batteries continues to grow, and the leading advantages of Chinese battery manufacturers are further expanded. According to canalys data, the installed capacity of global power batteries reached 296.8gwh in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 102.2%. According to the forecast, there will be a power shortage of 406wh battery in the global electric vehicle market by 2025. Compared with 2020, the market share of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery enterprises in 2021 will not only continue to lead Japanese and Korean enterprises, but also further expand their leading advantages. Among the top ten power battery enterprises in the world in 2021, Chinese enterprises occupied 6 seats, with a total market share of 48.6%, an increase of about 10 percentage points year-on-year.
The installed capacity of batteries in China has increased greatly, and the concentration continues to rise. According to the power battery data released by China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, the cumulative loading volume of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery in 2021 was 154.5gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 142.8%. In 2021, the power battery enterprises in China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market ranked among the top 3, top 5 and top 10 power battery enterprises. The power battery loading volume of power battery enterprises was 114.6gwh, 128.9gwh and 142.5gwh respectively, accounting for 74.2%, 83.4% and 92.3% of the total vehicle loading volume respectively. The industry concentration was further improved.
Based on the support of market demand, the pace of production expansion of power battery enterprises has accelerated. 2021 is the year when the power battery industry opens a new round of expansion of the whole industrial chain, with a wide range, large scale and unprecedented investment. According to the statistics of lithium battery of Gaogong, the total investment of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery enterprise capacity planning project in 2021 exceeded 620 billion. Since this year, a number of power battery enterprises have started new projects with a total investment of nearly 100 billion yuan, and it is expected that the new production capacity will exceed 200 GWH. In 2021, battery companies including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , China Innovation airlines, honeycomb energy and Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) have announced several production expansion plans. In the production expansion plan of battery manufacturers, 2025 is the key time node. It is expected that by 2025, the top 10 loading capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery enterprises will exceed 3twh.
The binding degree of automobile enterprises is an important factor for the implementation of battery manufacturers’ capacity planning. As major battery companies expand their production, the degree of binding with car companies is an important factor for battery manufacturers to plan and implement, which is related to whether they can bring corresponding revenue to enterprises after the release of production capacity in the future. In the field of passenger cars, the power battery is highly concentrated. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is the main supplier of the vast majority of independent car enterprises, new power enterprises and joint ventures, Byd Company Limited(002594) self supply is the main supplier, AVIC lithium battery is mainly supplied to GAC passenger cars and Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) is mainly supplied to SAIC GM Wuling, Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) and Chery. In terms of the number of supporting vehicle enterprises, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and LG have the most obvious advantages in new energy, and Byd Company Limited(002594) has great potential for external supply; Secondly, the second and third tier battery enterprises are more dependent on a single car enterprise, and the performance flexibility is also greater.
