Core view
Crude oil related information:
Crude oil and related inventory: on February 25, 2022, the commercial inventory of crude oil in the United States was 413.4 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 2.6 million barrels; Gasoline inventory was 246 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 500000 barrels; Distillate oil inventory was 119.1 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) barrels; Propane inventory was 3715.4 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 848000 barrels. U.S. crude oil production and number of drilling rigs: on February 25, 2022, the U.S. crude oil production was 11.6 million barrels / day, the weekly number remained unchanged, an increase of 1.6 million barrels / day compared with a year ago. On March 4, the number of drilling rigs in the United States was 650, the weekly number remained unchanged, and the annual number increased by 247; The number of drilling rigs in Canada is 217, with a weekly decrease of 7 and an annual increase of 76. Among them, there are 519 oil production rigs in the United States, with a decrease of 3 in the week and an increase of 209 in the year.
Price change:
Among the 188 chemical products we monitored, the top three products with price increases this week were naphtha (up 20.6%), WTI (up 16.0%) and formic acid (up 15.2%); The top three declines were dichloromethane (- 10.4%), glycine (- 9.6%) and acetic acid (- 9.1%).
Monthly, the top three products with price increases were tetrachloroethylene (up 59.8%), liquid chlorine (up 46.1%) and naphtha (up 37.1%); The top three declines were acetic acid (down 37.2%), natural gas (down 19.8%) and glycine (down 18.3%).
Price difference change:
The top three products with price difference increase this week are styrene (up 3418.9%), coal glycol (up 657.1%) and polyethylene (up 198.2%); The top three declines were R134a spread (down 4082.8%), PX (down 120.9%) and styrene spread (down 102.1%).
In terms of monthly price difference, the top three products with price difference increase are coal head ethylene glycol price difference (up 594.7%), styrene price difference (up 369.7%) and DMAC price difference (up 197.7%); The top three declines were R134a spread (down 505.4%), R410A spread (down 200.0%) and butyl acrylate spread (down 127.7%).
Investment proposal and investment object
Recently, the oil price is at a high level. The market is worried that the profitability of large refining and chemical will be affected after the oil price exceeds $80 / barrel. In terms of refined oil, as China’s refined oil pricing mechanism is more market-oriented, in the range of 40-130 US dollars / barrel, as long as the oil price does not rise or fall sharply, there is a high probability that there will be a reasonable profit range for refined oil in the future. In terms of chemicals, due to the existence of supply side constraints, the rising probability of cost side can be transmitted to the downstream. At present, the price difference of chemicals represented by polyethylene is at the bottom and the downward space is small. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , buy), Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ( Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , buy), Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ( Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , buy).
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the rise of crude oil and other commodities and the rise of inflation. It is suggested to pay attention to opportunities related to agrochemicals. In terms of chemical fertilizer, due to the extremely limited new capacity of global chemical fertilizer supply, the global supply and demand of chemical fertilizer maintain a fragile and tight balance. Although the recent price is relatively stable, there are expectations of continued price rise and trading opportunities in the sector from the recent rise of chemical fertilizer targets in US stocks. It is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) ( Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , overweight), Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) ( Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , buy), Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd.Company(002538) ( Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd.Company(002538) , buy) Sichuan Meifeng Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000731) ( Sichuan Meifeng Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000731) , not rated), Yangmei Chemical Co.Ltd(600691) ( Yangmei Chemical Co.Ltd(600691) , not rated), Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ( Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , not rated), etc. In terms of pesticides, high food prices support the demand and price acceptance of pesticides, and pay attention to the globally distributed pesticide enterprises with outstanding competitiveness Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemical Co.Ltd(301035) ( Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemical Co.Ltd(301035) , buy).
Risk tips
The price difference between ethylene and oil price further narrowed, the demand for chemicals was lower than expected, the price of crude oil fluctuated sharply, and geopolitics.
