The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, and the global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price continues to rise. Russia and Ukraine are two important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) exporters in the world. The market is worried that their output will be interrupted and get stuck in the neck of global rations supply, especially Ukraine.
The interruption of trade flow is a short-term impact. Odessa port, which undertakes 80% of the grain export task of Ukraine, and chernomos port, the main export port of sunflower oil, have been closed. However, due to the long shelf life of most Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) of them, it is expected that the current inventory will stay in the intermediate link, and both the buyer and the seller generally have force majeure and commercial insurance protection. The short-term Caton will only affect the rhythm of supply and demand in the season, and will not affect the actual supply pattern in the season. Prices will rise and fall.
The interruption of production has a long-term impact. Under normal circumstances, Ukraine will usher in the spring sowing moment from mid March, and some important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) will be sown on the best black land in Europe. However, at the moment of war, where Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) spring farming will go will have a long-term impact on the global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply.
Agricultural planting attaches great importance to the sowing time (recently, Chinese officials repeatedly mentioned that the late sowing of winter wheat last year may hinder this year's high yield). Our question: does the outflow of refugees affect the supply of agricultural labor force? Whether the control in the war and the damage of transportation network affect the purchase and transportation of agricultural materials? Will the current routine maintenance of winter wheat and rapeseed harvested in the second quarter continue? How can other major producing countries that benefit from it adjust their planting intentions?
As of our writing, the website of the Ministry of agriculture of Ukraine has not evaluated the impact of the war on agriculture. The Vice Minister of agriculture's Twitter is also on hold. At the beginning of the war, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said it was "unable to assess the impact on food". The eyes of the market are waiting for the USDA's latest estimate of global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , especially wheat and corn, next week.
We judge that the current international wheat and corn futures market has been relatively sufficient to deal with the "impact of interrupting trade flow". In the future, the dynamics of spring sowing in Ukraine will disturb the global grain market. Once the front is stretched and has a substantial impact on planting, it will be a larger and longer price rise. It is suggested to pay attention to staple grain planting Stocks - Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) , Heilongjiang Agriculture Company Limited(600598) and seed concept stocks - Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , etc.
Risk warning: extreme weather affects crop planting and growth, and the data is not updated in time.
