According to the news data, the average price of pigs in 22 provinces and cities in China was 12.58 yuan / kg on March 4, 22, up + 1.04% from last week; Pig prices have continued to rebound to the end of November since the bottom was reached in October 21, with a rebound range of 67%. The continuous downward trend was started in early December. At the profit level, the average monthly breeding profit of self breeding from November to December of the 21st year was positive, while it changed from positive to negative in January of the 22nd year, and the overall decline continued after the lunar new year. The loss range of the industry in January and February reached 249 yuan / head and 438 yuan / head. On March 4, the profits of China’s self breeding and outsourcing piglets were – 481.8 yuan / head and – 153.3 yuan / head respectively, maintaining a deep loss. We expect this trend to continue. From the perspective of aquaculture loss, the loss will bring greater cash flow consumption and high probability of production capacity deregulation. From our price tracking indicators, the prices of piglets and sows are in the process of shock and downward exploration. According to the news, on March 4, the prices of piglets and binary sows were 25.87 yuan / kg and 32.74 yuan / kg, with a month on month ratio of + 2.54% and – 0.18%. In terms of weight, Yongyi data showed that the average weight of pigs released in February was about 116.38kg, down from – 2.85% in January, which was lower than the bottom period in October of 21 years. Combined with the pig price, the four are in the process of shock downward exploration at the same time, which is basically in line with our expectations, and the time of the second bottom is still ahead (we expect it to be in the middle of the 22nd year).
From the perspective of investment, we all think it is a high-quality layout opportunity before the second bottom. We reiterate that the layout is now. Secondly, from the perspective of valuation, the average market value of individual breeding stocks is at a relatively low level in history (excluding other businesses, the average market value ranges from 20917312 yuan / head), so we can seize the opportunity. Finally, the investment in pig breeding sector is viewed with periodic thinking and expected thinking, and the layout is right now.
The price of yellow feather chicken fluctuated downward, while the price of white feather chicken was relatively stable. According to the data of xinmu.com, the prices of fast big chicken and medium speed chicken were 5.89 yuan / kg and 6.67 yuan / kg on March 3, with a month on month ratio of – 0.34% and – 4.99% last week. Since November 21, the price of yellow feather chicken has fluctuated upward, the monthly average price has shown a steady upward trend, and the overall price is at a high level. During the Spring Festival, the national average price of yellow feather chicken exceeded 8 yuan, and the price is strong. Since March, the fast chicken has fallen sharply. From the perspective of upstream capacity, we maintain the point of view of 22h2 inflection point and suggest to continue to pay attention to Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) etc. In terms of white feather chickens, on March 4, the prices of white feather broilers and broiler seedlings in the main production areas were 7.4 yuan / kg and 1.0 yuan / feather respectively, up from + 3.35% and – 23.08% last week. It is suggested to pay long-term attention to the extension of the industry to the C-end and the development potential of the food end.
The agricultural sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 5.17pct. This week’s agriculture was + 3.49%, while the Shanghai composite index was – 0.11% and the CSI 300 fell by 1.68%. The three sectors with the best performance in agriculture are planting, breeding and feed, which are + 4.62%, + 4.19% and + 3.67% respectively. In terms of individual stocks, most of the top performers are pig breeding enterprises
It is suggested that the pig cycle is a sector market, and pig stocks have a certain room for rise. As for the selection of individual stocks, we are divided into two categories. First, the “small and beautiful” pig enterprises suggest to pay attention to Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , etc; Second, the “leading” pig enterprises suggest paying attention to Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , etc.
The risk indicates the risk of animal epidemic; The risk of pigs not reaching the expected level.
