View update this week
Affected by the rising price of raw materials this week, the market is worried that the profitability of new energy vehicles will decline or even lose money, or the rising cost (lithium carbonate, automotive steel and aluminum) will increase the uncertainty of new energy vehicle sales. We believe that, on the one hand, the continuous positive policies such as the double credit policy, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles and the exemption of purchase tax for new energy vehicles have added confidence to the certainty of new energy vehicle sales. On the other hand, since February, some new energy vehicles have raised the terminal price (generally up from 4000 yuan to 10000 yuan) to cope with the rise of raw material prices. In addition, in the industrial chain, vehicle manufacturers have the strongest voice. Therefore, we believe that the impact of the rise in the price of raw materials on the marginal impact of vehicle manufacturers is the weakest, so there is no need to worry too much. For some parts companies, the adverse impact of rising raw material prices can be offset by expanding scale advantages and introducing new products.
Weekly market review
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index rose or fell by – 0.11%, – 2.93% and – 1.68% respectively. The rise and fall of the automobile sector was – 4.75%, ranking the 30th among the 30 industries, ranking the last in the industry. From the perspective of a stock situation, the top five gainers in the industry this week are the company of the industry. The top five gaingainers in this week’s industry this week are the company of the industry: the Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 53537\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\;, Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Changzhou Tenglong Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603158) , with decreases of – 20.11%, – 19.41%, – 18.91% respectively -17.48%、 -16.08%。
Judgment and rating description of Industry Valuation
It is suggested to continue to pay attention to Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) ( Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) . SH), Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ( Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) . SZ), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ( Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) . SH / 2333. HK); The parts industry is suggested to pay attention to Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ( Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) . SH), Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ( Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) . SH), Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) ( Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) . SH).
Risk tips
1. The risk of car sales not reaching the expectation. 2. Industrial chain risk caused by chip shortage. 3. The risk of adverse impact of rising raw material prices on profits. 4. The impact of subsequent subsidy decline on automobile sales.
