Core view
Weekly performance of the sector: in the past two weeks, the CSI 300 fell 3.33%, the gem index fell 2.77%, and the food and beverage (CITIC) index fell 5.80%. Compared with the CSI 300, the relative income was – 2.79%, ranking 26th among the 29 sub industries of CITIC. Among the molecular sectors, the meat products sector rose by 0.88% in the past two weeks, the seasoning sector rose by 2.02% in the past two weeks, the snack food sector fell by 2.51% in the past two weeks, the quick-frozen food sector fell by 7.18% in the past two weeks, and other food sectors fell by 4.38% in the past two weeks.
Sector valuation level: the PE (TTM) valuation of the food sector this week reached 39.37x, higher than the 8-year average (37.52x) and the 5-year average (38.82x). This week, the valuation of the sector decreased compared with the previous period. Among them, the PE valuation of meat products / condiments / snack foods / quick-frozen foods / other foods is 23.96/62.56/33.78/36.78/27.76 times respectively, which is -4.51% / 18.37% / – 14.68% / – 60.07% / – 41.50% higher than the 8-year average valuation respectively. The valuation of condiments is higher than the historical level, and the meat products, snack foods, quick-frozen foods and other foods are at a historically low level.
Weekly tracking of individual stocks: in terms of the rise and fall of individual stocks, the five stocks with the highest increase in share prices in the past two weeks are Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) / Xiamen Kingdomway Group Company(002626) / Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) / Guangdong Ganhua Science & Industry Co.Ltd(000576) / Yantai Shuangta Food Co.Ltd(002481) ; The five stocks with high weekly average turnover rate are Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) / Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) / Guangdong Jialong Food Co.Ltd(002495) / Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) / Haixin Foods Co.Ltd(002702) ; The five stocks with high trading volume are Guangdong Jialong Food Co.Ltd(002495) / Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) / Yantai Shuangta Food Co.Ltd(002481) / Wanzhou International / Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) .
Industry highlights: 1) palm oil prices hit a new high, and global food prices are facing the risk of further rise; 2) General Administration of market supervision: 869 centralized supervision warehouses have been built in China to prevent the risk of imported cold chain food; 3) Kai AI: in 2022, the five main trends of China’s food and beverage were the flavor of the country, and the frequent / no eating / the herbal / 100% cheese / salt sweetness.
Reminders of later important matters: convening of extraordinary general meeting: Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) , Bestore Co.Ltd(603719)
Investment proposal and investment object
At present, the industry demand is still at the bottom and the subsequent recovery is still uncertain. We still maintain the annual strategic view and suggest paying attention to the reform results on the supply side; Some companies may usher in the performance inflection point in the annual report and the first quarterly report. It is suggested to seize the allocation opportunity.
Condiment: 1) industry level: from the demand side, the recovery trend of the industry remains to be seen, because February to march is the off-season for condiment sales, and the local epidemic has been repeated in recent days, which has disturbed the demand recovery; From the perspective of price increase implementation, Haitian is superior to its peers in terms of price increase speed due to its high price increase time and obvious advantages of industry leaders; Li Jinji, Zhongju, etc. are facing certain inventory pressure due to the late implementation time of price increase, and the implementation of favorable price is not clear; On the cost side, soybean, soybean meal, white granulated sugar and plastics, the main materials of the industry, are still at a high level, and the weekly improvement is not obvious. Among them, the price of soybean meal and plastics are rising month on month, and the decline of cost remains to be seen. 2) Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) ( Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , buy) update: a) the stock price has been corrected recently, because the market is worried about the chain reaction caused by the dynamic sales in the first quarter, the rise of molasses price and the situation in Russia and Ukraine. However, from the short-term and long-term dimensions, we still suggest to continue to pay attention to Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , and be optimistic about the subsequent elasticity / stock price catalyst. In the long run, ① the current stage of angel is similar to that in 13-14 years, Faced with some disturbing factors, after 15 years, due to the decline of income tax rate, depreciation and amortization, molasses cost and many other restrictive factors, the performance elasticity in 15-17 years continued to release; ② In 21 years, angel carried out a series of reforms under the pressure of the industry, including a series of activities such as price increase and hydrolyzed sugar. We believe that these adjustments are based on the long term and still contribute to the profits in 23 years and beyond. Moreover, angel’s overseas expansion has been steadily promoted, the pricing power of the industry has been continuously realized under this round of pressure, and the long-term logic has been verified. In the short term, due to the confusion of current expectations and some interference factors, the market is still waiting for the verification of the first quarter report. We suggest to pay attention to the subsequent stock price catalysis factors and grasp the layout opportunities. The subsequent stock price catalysis factors include: the purchase of molasses is better than expected, the first quarter report is better than expected, the stabilization of cost side fluctuations by hydrolyzed sugar is effectively verified The elasticity brought by further price increase or price increase landing exceeding expectations and 21q3 low base. b) According to the feedback from the molasses market this week, the current molasses price has increased from 12001300 yuan before and after the Spring Festival to more than 1500 yuan, but the subsequent molasses price changes are still affected by positive and negative factors: ① near the end of the pressing season, there is upward pressure on the price; ② The sugar factory expects that the output may shrink by 10-15% this year, but this news may also be a price strategy of the sugar factory; ③ Under the current price, the operating rate and willingness of alcohol manufacturers are not high, resulting in downward pressure on prices; ④ Yeast’s hydrolyzed sugar project may cause price interference. 3) Standing at the current time point, it is suggested to pay more attention to the reform achievements on the supply side and grasp the corresponding allocation opportunities.
Snack food: this week, the sector made a correction, which raised concerns due to the rise in the price of raw materials such as palm oil and the impact of local epidemic on factory production. However, we believe that a series of reforms starting from 21-22 still bring good short-term and long-term performance of the company, and we suggest to grasp the corresponding allocation opportunities. 1) It is suggested to pay attention to individual stocks with marginal improvement due to reform (implementation of price increase policy, positive channel expansion, large volume of new products, etc.), such as Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) ( Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , buy), Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) ( Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) , buy), Three Squirrels Inc(300783) ( Three Squirrels Inc(300783) , not rated) Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) the price increase is relatively smooth and is expected to contribute to the revenue of 21q4 Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) channel expansion (expansion of new channels such as circulation channels and busy snacks) and product promotion (mainly promoting spicy brine and deep-sea snacks, and making efforts to load products quantitatively) have begun to show results Three Squirrels Inc(300783) launched offline channels. In December of the 21st year, the monthly purchase sales of the new distribution system exceeded 400 million yuan, and the sales of offline stores exceeded 1.6 billion yuan (YoY + 33%); 2) Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) ( Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) , overweight) has shown good business robustness under the pressure of the industry in 21 years (for example, the omni channel layout mode hedges the negative impact of channel fragmentation and channel flow change, and the omni category layout mode suppresses the negative impact of the life cycle of leisure food under the background of diversified demand), and is optimistic about the medium and long-term investment value;
Quick frozen food: due to the impact of the epidemic, the demand of catering end in peak season and the prices of raw materials such as oil, flour and soybean protein are still high, and there is some resistance to product price increase due to intensified competition. It is expected that there will still be pressure on industry companies in the first quarter. It is suggested to pay attention to Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) ( Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Unrated) which is expected to benefit from the recovery of catering in the short term and Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) ( Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , overweight) which has prominent valuation and cost performance.
Halogen products: it is suggested to continue to pay attention to Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) ( Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , buy). At present, the company’s growth rate is leading, seizing market share and improving industry concentration through mergers and acquisitions, turnover and other means. It is expected to further sink and open stores in 22 years. In addition, the cost side duck and sideline price is expected to fall, or will usher in marginal improvement. At present, the valuation is at a low historical point, so it can choose to increase positions; It is suggested to pay attention to Zhou Heiya (01458, not rated) who is in the process of franchise and supply chain optimization
Baking and tea raw materials: at present, the price of oil and other raw materials is still at a high level, but the strong demand in the downstream determines that expanding production capacity and seizing market share is the main line of the industry. It is recommended to pay attention to the leader of frozen baking Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) ( Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , not rated) and the supplier of tea vegetable fat powder raw materials Jiahe Foods Industry Co.Ltd(605300) ( Jiahe Foods Industry Co.Ltd(605300) , not rated). Risk statement
Rising raw material costs, intensifying industry competition, sudden food safety incidents, etc
