Market review: the supply side impact resumed, led by the auto sector. CITIC auto index fell 4.75% this week, 3.06 percentage points behind the market, ranking the last in 30 industries. Among them, passenger cars fell 4.50%, commercial vehicles fell 1.76%, auto parts fell 6.02%, and auto sales and services rose 0.55%. In the concept sector, the new energy vehicle index fell 7.17% and the intelligent vehicle index fell 8.11%. The reasons why the automobile sector led the decline this week are: ① the upstream raw material prices of aluminum, copper and crude oil accelerated upward; ② renewed doubts about the sales data in March, especially for new energy vehicles. With the lithium carbonate price exceeding 500000 yuan / ton, the output of some battery plants is weak; ③ due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it is expected that the chip supply will be tight again, and some European automobile enterprises have stopped production. Parts and components are more affected by the price rise of raw materials, and the segments that are relatively resistant to decline in the early stage, auto parts and smart cars, have a large decline under the impact.
Data tracking: 1) the Spring Festival makes the data of the travel association change greatly in February, but the performance is strong in the whole month. In the first four weeks of February, the passenger union wholesale 54000 vehicles on average, a year-on-year increase of 31.0%. Among them, the average daily wholesale sales of narrow passenger car manufacturers in the first two weeks, the third week and the fourth week of February were 28000, 62000 and 89000 respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 19.9%, + 141.6% and + 36.8% respectively. In the first four weeks of February, the passenger union retailed 47000 vehicles per day, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%. Among them, the average daily retail sales of narrow passenger car manufacturers in the first two weeks, the third week and the fourth week of February were 26000, 47000 and 80000 respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 33.2%, + 67.4% and + 31.1% respectively. 2) Raw material prices rose again. In March, the quotations of Changjiang nonferrous copper, aluminum A00 and PP (wire drawing) increased by 3.2%, 19.6% and 7.2% respectively compared with December of 21 years. The profits of some parts companies with high proportion of raw materials are under pressure.
New forces released February delivery data, stronger than expected. According to the delivery data of “Wei Xiaoli”, “Nezha” and “Zero run”, 31000 vehicles were delivered in February of 22, with a year-on-year increase of 146.0%, stronger than the growth rate in January 2022 (139.9%); The month on month decrease was 41.9%, which was stronger than the month on month growth rate (- 43.4%) in February 2021. Among them, 6131 Weilai cars were delivered in February, with a year-on-year increase of 9.9% and a month on month increase of – 36.5%; 6225 Xiaopeng cars were delivered, 180.0% year-on-year and – 51.8% month on month; 8414 ideal cars were delivered, 265% year-on-year and – 31.4% month on month; Nezha delivered 7117 vehicles, 255.5% year-on-year and – 35.4% month on month; 3435 Zero run vehicles were delivered, 447.0% year-on-year and – 57.5% month on month.
Investment suggestion: under the impact of both supply and demand, the auto sector was intensively sold off by institutional investors around last week. The short-term domestic demand and other bulk price trends, the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the sales volume data in March are clear, and they are still optimistic in the medium and long term: 1) pay attention to the intelligent driving industry chain, and pay attention to Foryou Corporation(002906) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) , Shunyu optics, Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Nextel and China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) . 2) Auto parts, focus on ① Tesla industrial chain, Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ; ② Lightweight, Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) ; ③ Platform company, focusing on Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) . 3) The trend of independent rise is clear, and the vehicle manufacturer suggests paying attention to Geely motor, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , and the undervalued Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) .
Risk tip: the lack of chips exceeded expectations, resulting in the industry recovery less than expected; The progress of intelligent electric is less than expected; Bulk price increases and core deficiency fermentation exceeded expectations.
