Talk every Monday:
OPEC’s actual production increase was lower than expected:
In December, the output of the ten OPEC countries increased by less than 200000 barrels per day, and the output of OPEC member countries increased by only 64000 barrels per day in January. In recent months, OPEC production reduction countries have failed to achieve the production increase target.
Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait are the four major countries that increase production. Among them, the increase in production in Iraq is slightly unstable, and the increase in production capacity of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait is basically guaranteed.
In the future, the idle capacity of OPEC crude oil will decline, and the supply elasticity will gradually decrease:
At present, the ten OPEC countries have the ability to release output quickly, but the output supply elasticity will decline after 2023.
According to EIA, OPEC’s idle capacity is expected to be 5.11 million barrels per day by the end of 2022, and may further drop to less than 4 million barrels per day by the end of 2023, significantly lower than 9 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2021.
Russian Ukrainian war escalates, and Russian crude oil supply is expected to be interrupted:
In 2020, Russia’s crude oil exports accounted for about 25% of the total global crude oil export trade. More than 50% of Russia’s crude oil and condensate exports go to European countries, including Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, etc., 42% go to the Asia Pacific region (China accounts for about 31%), and only 1% go to the United States.
The escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine has increased the difficulty of Russia’s international energy trade and international settlement. Affected by this, the loss of Russian crude oil export is about 2 million barrels / day.
Iran has room to increase production by about 1.5 million barrels per day, but it will take about a year for the supply level to fully recover:
Iran’s current crude oil production is about 2.5 million barrels / day, while the crude oil production before the sanctions is about 4 million barrels / day, with an increase of about 1.5 million barrels / day.
Six months after Iran lifted sanctions in the last round, crude oil production increased by about 700000 barrels / day, and the monthly output increased by about 100000 barrels / day. We assume that if the sanctions are lifted, it will take about a year for Iran to fully restore its production capacity of nearly 4 million barrels per day before the sanctions.
It is expected that the mismatch between supply and demand in the crude oil market will be strengthened in 2022, which will promote the prosperity of the petroleum and petrochemical sector:
It is suggested to pay attention to the following targets: 1) oil service sector: China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) , Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation(600871) , Bomesc Offshore Engineering Company Limited(603727) ; 2) Private refining and chemical sector: Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) .
Market review:
Sector performance: this week, CITIC’s primary petroleum and petrochemical index rose or fell – 2.24%, ranking 23rd among 30 industry indexes. This week, the Shanghai index rose or fell – 2.13%, and the CITIC primary petroleum and petrochemical index was – 2.13% relative to the Shanghai index. Rise and fall of petroleum and petrochemical sub sectors: oil exploitation (+ 4.77%), oilfield sales and storage (+ 3.25%), oilfield services (+ 2.03%), oil refining (+ 1.69%), engineering services (+ 0.7%), and other petrochemical (- 8.29%).
Rise and fall of individual stocks: this week, the petroleum and petrochemical sector led the rise of individual stocks, including Shandong Xinchao Energy Corporation Limited(600777) (+ 15.46%), Maoming Petro-Chemical Shihua Co.Ltd(000637) (+ 10.82%), Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) (+ 10.81%), Bomesc Offshore Engineering Company Limited(603727) (+ 6.21%); Stocks leading the decline include Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) (- 13.23%), Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) (- 11.26%), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) (- 11.09%), Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) (- 8.96%), Zhejiang Hailide New Material Co.Ltd(002206) (- 8.03%), etc.
Risk warning: policy risk; Geopolitics exacerbates risks; The risk of sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices and the risk of continued deterioration of the global covid-19 epidemic;
