Talk every Monday: the instability of the industrial chain leads to fluctuations and seeks certainty in uncertainty
This week, the auto sector fell 4.5%, ranking at the bottom of Shenwan’s 28 industries, with poor overall performance. We sorted out the possible causes of sector fluctuations from the perspectives of upstream, middle and downstream:
Upstream: the price of raw materials continues to rise, while the profit of the manufacturing industry continues to rise. Supply and demand are unbalanced, and the prices of new energy related raw materials such as lithium ore continue to soar. When the battery grade lithium carbonate exceeded 500000 yuan / ton this week, it soared nearly 10 times a year. The continued tension in Russia and Ukraine has promoted the rise of automotive commodities such as aluminum and oil, and metals such as copper, palladium and nickel may also be affected.
Unstable supply of overseas parts and components: unstable supply of downstream parts and components. Tensions in Russia and Ukraine led to the shutdown of some local parts factories. For example, the shutdown of Leoni’s harness factory has affected the production scheduling of some European car enterprises, and there may be the possibility of parts layout transfer in the long run.
Downstream automobile manufacturing: in early February, China estimated that the production and sales fell month on month, the rise in the price of new energy raised concerns, some factories in Europe stopped production, and there was uncertainty on the demand side. China: in early February, it is estimated that the production and sales fell month on month, and the price rise of new energy vehicle enterprises combined with the decline in the sales of some new energy vehicles (we think it is a normal response to the Spring Festival effect), which may trigger concerns about uncertain demand in the market. Abroad: some automobile enterprises shut down their factories under the influence of the situation in Russia and Ukraine. In the long run, the sanctions may be further intensified, which may further limit the automobile production in Russia and Ukraine.
At a time when there is still uncertainty in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain, we suggest looking for certainty in the uncertainty. First, give priority to the allocation of enterprises that are not afraid of the fluctuation of the industrial chain, such as independent brand automobile enterprises Byd Company Limited(002594) , which have stronger independent control over the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain and keep cashing in their performance; China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) , which is insensitive to market supply and demand, production and sales, and has good defensive attribute and growth certainty. Secondly, it is suggested to pay attention to the relevant targets of the electric and intelligent industry chain with long-term value, such as Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , topology group, Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , etc.
Market review:
As of the closing on March 4, the auto sector was – 4.5% and the CSI 300 index was – 1.7%. The decline of the auto sector was 2.8 percentage points lower than that of the CSI 300 index. From the perspective of sector ranking, the growth rate of the automobile industry last week ranked last among the 31 sectors of Shenwan, with poor performance. Since the beginning of the year, the automobile sector has been – 14.9%, ranking 28th among the 31 sectors of Shenwan.
Weekly rise and fall of sub sectors: the performance of weekly rise and fall of sub sectors: only automobile dealers Rose (+ 2.2%), electric passenger vehicles (- 5.7%), tire hubs (- 4.1%) and automotive electronic and electrical systems (- 4.1%) led the decline.
Top five gainers and Losers: Zhonglu.Co.Ltd(600818) , Rayhoo Motor Dies Co.Ltd(002997) , Kunshan Huguang Auto Harness Co.Ltd(605333) , Zhongjie (Jiangsu) Technology Co.Ltd(301072) , Hunan Tyen Machinery Co.Ltd(600698) .
The top five in terms of rise and fall: Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Jiangsu Changshu Automotive Trim Group Co.Ltd(603035) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Changzhou Tenglong Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603158) .
Investment strategy and key recommendations this week:
The automobile sector should pay more attention to the companies whose profits are determined to grow and the companies whose valuation center is improved. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the problem of core shortage and the opportunities for vehicle and traditional parts enterprises in the improvement stage. Therefore, we suggest paying attention to: competitive Vehicle Enterprises: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Automobile, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , etc. High quality enterprises in the parts sector with reasonable valuation at present: Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319) , Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) , etc; Technical service enterprises that are not significantly affected by production and sales fluctuations and have strong growth certainty: China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) etc.
Recommended combination this week: Byd Company Limited(002594) 20%, Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) 20%, Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) 20%, China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) 20% and Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) 20%.
Risk tip: the car sales volume is lower than expected; The implementation of stimulus policies for the automobile industry was less than expected; The risk of intensified market competition; Risk of shortage of key raw materials such as chips and rising cost of raw materials; The epidemic control was less than expected.
