Key investment points:
Last week’s market
Last Friday, the CSI 300 fell 1.68% and the SW auto sector fell 4.47%, outperforming the market by 2.78%, mainly due to the rise in the price of main raw materials in the sector and the shutdown of some factories such as Volkswagen BMW due to the situation in Russia and Ukraine. Among them, the passenger car sector fell 4.75%; The commercial bus sector fell 3.14%; The commercial truck sector fell 2.44%; The auto parts sector fell 4.80%; The auto service sector fell 0.48%.
Price trend of upstream raw materials
Last week, the steel composite price index rose by 1.19%, aluminum and copper prices rose by 2.72% / 2.54% respectively, natural rubber futures prices fell by 2.42%, Brent crude oil futures prices rose sharply by 20.61%, and float glass prices fell slightly by 0.38%. On the whole, the price of main raw materials in the automobile manufacturing industry increased significantly this week, and the cost pressure of the industry increased.
Industry news
1) China Automobile Association: the automobile sales volume in February is expected to be 1.666 million, with a month on month change of + 13.8% / – 34.2%; 2) Beijing: at the end of the 14th five year plan, the city will strive to promote 2 million new energy vehicles in total; 3) Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region: more than 5000 hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks will be promoted before 2025; 4) The sales volume of new forces in February announced that Weilai / ideal / Xiaopeng / Zero run increased by 9.9% / 265.8% / 180% / 447% year-on-year; 5) Hyundai announced an investment plan of nearly US $80 billion, of which 16 billion is for electric vehicles; 6) Tesla Berlin plant is approved or will hold the opening ceremony on March 22.
Company news
1) Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) annual report: in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 284 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.21%; 2) Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) : the non-public offering of A-Shares was approved by the CSRC; 3) Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) : the sales volume in February was 322000, with a month on month change of + 30.63% / – 29.32%; the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 45300, with a month on month change of + 48.42% / – 37.33%; 4) Byd Company Limited(002594) : in February, the automobile sales volume was 91100, with a month on month change of + 335.22% / – 4.55%; 5) Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) : obtained the fixed-point letter of air suspension system product project of a head independent brand main engine factory in China.
Industry strategy and individual stock recommendation this week
According to the preliminary statistics of the Federation of passenger cars, the wholesale / retail sales of narrow passenger cars in February were 150.21312000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 31% / 10% and a month on month decrease of 30% / 37%. The month on month performance was better than that in the same period of 2019 / 2021. Under the condition of epidemic spread and tight chip supply, it realized the same relatively rapid growth, indicating that there is a foundation for terminal demand and there is no need to be too pessimistic about future growth. We insist that with the support of replenishment and demand replenishment, the recovery trend of the industry this year is expected to continue. At the same time, China’s demand for steady growth is becoming more and more obvious. Under the strategic requirements of expanding domestic demand, automobile consumption is expected to become an important driving force, and the necessity of stabilizing automobile consumption is rising. In terms of new energy vehicles, in February, the sales volume of new energy vehicles made by the new forces of vehicle manufacturing, Byd Company Limited(002594) and SAIC achieved rapid growth, and the industry boom is still growing. Since the beginning of the year, although the price of models has been raised due to the decline of subsidies and the price adjustment of power batteries, and the expectation of rapid growth of the industry is facing some pressure, we believe that the logic of supply stimulating demand this year will continue to be deduced, and the undelivered orders accumulated for the best-selling models last year will be delivered in the first half of the year. Therefore, we are not pessimistic about the sales forecast of this year, This year, class a vehicles and hybrid vehicles will effectively supplement the model product line, which is expected to contribute to the main increment. The global new energy vehicle market will continue to grow rapidly under the leadership of China, Europe and the United States. To sum up, we’re looking at: 1) 1) China enters and binds international car companies like Tesla and Volkswagen, and international car companies like Tesla and Volkswagen, and international car companies like Tesla, Volkswagen and Volkswagen, as well as companies with new forces for car making, and companies with strong self brand supply chains, such as Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) 89 \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ ( Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ) Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ）； 2) Enterprises that enter the supply chain of leading battery manufacturers at home and abroad, such as Panasonic, lgenergysolution, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Freddie battery, such as Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) ( Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) ), Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) ( Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) ), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ( Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ). In addition, we are optimistic about independent automobile enterprises that continuously improve their technology and stand out in the fierce competition, such as Byd Company Limited(002594) ( Byd Company Limited(002594) ) and Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) ( Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) ).
In terms of smart cars, the current cooperation between technology giants and car enterprises continues to advance. In the future, China’s smart electric vehicle market will present a diversified competition pattern. With the subsequent significant increase in the supply of smart cars in China (a number of smart new models are expected to appear at this year’s Beijing auto show), the industrial development will accelerate, It is suggested to focus on two main lines: 1) thematic opportunities in Huawei’s automobile industry chain, such as Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ( Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) ( Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) ) and Baic Bluepark New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(600733) ( Baic Bluepark New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(600733) ); 2) ⏳ɛɛɛɛɛɛɛɛɛɛɛɛɛɛɛɛɛɛ35.
Risk warning: policy fluctuation risk; Risk of chip shortage; The global covid-19 pneumonia epidemic control was less than expected; The electric transformation of Chinese and international car enterprises is less than expected; The promotion of new energy and intelligent networked vehicles was lower than expected.
