Industry core view:
In 2021, the media industry was at a low allocation level, and the fund allocation level was also at a low level. The overall position style is deeply influenced by the leading companies, and the advertising marketing and digital media sectors are at the over allocation level. At the same time, the capital still favors the head companies. The composition of the top ten heavy position stocks in the media industry is relatively stable in the four quarters, and the position holding degree of the industry fund has increased significantly; The company announced that the epidemic situation had a significant impact on the profits of the industry, and the profits of the company recovered in recent 7 years.
Key investment points:
\u3000\u30001. PE and trading heat: the valuation of Q4 Shenwan media industry index rebounded in 2021, and the average daily turnover of Q4 week fluctuated.
\u3000\u30002. Fund position: 1) the allocation level of the media industry continues to be low. The fund position proportion of 21q4 media sector accounts for 1.31% of the whole industry, which is the lowest in Q4 in recent five years, down 0.85pct compared with 20q4 and up 0.09pct compared with 21q3. At the end of 21, the fund allocation level was at a low level in recent years, and the fund allocation level continued to be at a historical low. 2) The position style continued, and the proportion of advertising marketing and digital media oversupply fell. The impact of the epidemic has been gradually digested, the ladder media industry has recovered strongly, and the fund positions of games, advertising marketing and digital media have increased in the media industry. However, for the overall A-share market, the over allocation proportion of advertising marketing and digital media sector has dropped. 3) The stock market value of Q4 is mostly affected by the rise and fall of stock price, and the position favors the head company unchanged. On a month on month basis, the ranking of Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) , Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) , Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) , Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) remained unchanged, maintaining the top 5. From the perspective of Q4 position increase, Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) reached the top of the position increase list, Bluefocus Intelligent Communications Group Co.Ltd(300058) , visual media position and stock price rose sharply. Excluding Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) , the number of shares held by other funds of top5 company has increased significantly. Compared with the heavy positions of funds in the media industry in recent four quarters, the composition of the top ten heavy positions has not changed much.
\u3000\u30003. Performance disclosure: 1) nearly 70% of the companies publish the performance overview. As of March 1, 103 companies had disclosed their performance. 2) The impact of the epidemic gradually weakened and the overall performance rebounded significantly. The profit side showed an increasing trend, with the majority of companies, the number of companies with an increasing and decreasing trend at the revenue side was flat, and the overall industry showed an upward trend.
Investment suggestion: comply with the strict regulatory environment of the policy, promote industrial reform, and grasp the innovation needs brought by the post epidemic era and Z era. 1) Game: the epidemic dividend has faded. It is suggested to pay attention to the individual stocks in the product line that are developed for the new generation of users, have well-known IP, have high expectations and good test feedback; At the same time, driven by the concept of “meta universe”, it is expected that the ecological construction of VR content will become the focus of the market in 2022; 2) Film and television cinemas: focus on leading cinemas and individual stocks; 3) Film and television series: diversified theatres and mini dramas will be the focus of the development of the video industry. It is suggested to pay attention to individual stocks with strong content IP commercialization ability; 4) Advertising marketing: the prosperity of ladder media remains unchanged, focusing on relevant stocks of ladder media.
Risk factors: stricter regulatory policies; Xinyou delayed its launch and its performance was lower than expected; Increased risk of going to sea business; Risk of recurrent outbreaks; Goodwill impairment risk.
