This week’s opinion update:
The government work report released that the certainty of “steady growth” has increased: the government work report clearly put forward that China’s 22-year economic growth target is about 5.5%, increasing transfer payments by 1.5 trillion yuan, with a scale of nearly 9.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18%, the largest increase in many years; At the same time, it also mentioned “accelerating the renewal and transformation of urban gas pipelines and other pipe networks”. The central government’s increased transfer payment will provide new sources of funds for the implementation of “stable growth” in all regions. The issuance of public raised REITs for infrastructure construction over the past 22 years will be accelerated, which will also provide new sources of funds for “stable growth”, and the certainty of “stable growth” will be further improved. Firmly optimistic about the “steady growth” sector and enterprises with infrastructure operation assets.
The CBRC issued a document to protect the housing needs of new citizens, and the real estate chain may usher in a fundamental recovery: the moderate policy attitude of the real estate industry has been clearly verified. The policy statement of chairman Guo Shuqing this week is the first time that the central government has clearly expressed a moderate attitude towards the real estate industry at the central level since the central government put forward the “real estate is not fried” at the end of 2016; The documents issued by the CBRC and the people’s Bank of China also further clarify the credit support for “300 million new citizens” housing loans, and the real estate chain may usher in a fundamental recovery.
The REITs transaction is overheated, so it is imperative to increase the project supply: the price of REITs listed recently has increased greatly, and the regulators remind the transaction risk. Combined with our previous judgment, the sharp rise in REITs price is mainly caused by the shortage of assets and the insufficient supply of REITs products. Judge whether the supply of subsequent projects (listing of new projects or raising of stock products) will accelerate or stabilize the current situation of overheated transactions. The acceleration of project supply can effectively increase the source of infrastructure funds and reduce the risk of local debt.
Market performance and high frequency data tracking this week:
Market performance: this week, CITIC Building materials index was – 1.63%, of which ceramic sector increased the most (+ 2.13%) and glass fiber sector decreased the most (- 4.38%); This week, CITIC construction index + 0.58%, of which the housing construction sector increased the most (+ 4.81%), and the architectural design and service II sector decreased the most (- 3.16%); This week, the public infrastructure REITs sector increased by an average of + 0.35% (arithmetic average), of which Hua’an Zhangjiang Everbright REIT increased the most (+ 3.89%), and Wells Fargo’s first water REIT decreased the most (- 5.56%).
High frequency data (2.19-2.25): cement: po42 this week 5. The average price of cement is 507 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 0.28%; The storage capacity ratio is 64.00% and the chain ratio is -1.94pct. Glass: the spot price of glass this week was 2373 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of – 0.38%; The inventory was 51.14 million heavy boxes, a month on month increase of + 10.47%. The average price of 3.2mm is 26 yuan / m2, with a month on month increase of + 4.00%; The average price of 2mm photovoltaic glass is 20.00 yuan / m2, with a month on month ratio of – 38.46%; Glass fiber: the price of winding direct yarn this week was 6400 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The price of G75 electronic yarn was 10000 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 11.11%.
Investment suggestions:
Building materials sector: in the direction of periodic products, float is the best at this stage (it is suggested to pay attention to: Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) etc.); In the direction of capital construction, pay attention to the elasticity of cement and some pipeline enterprises (it is suggested to pay attention to: Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) ); The purchasing point of consumer building materials is approaching (attention is recommended: Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ); New material direction, continue to recommend Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) , Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) .
Construction sector: optimistic about the equipment operating lease sector (it is recommended to pay attention to: Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) , Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) etc.); Revaluation of sector value brought by public offering REITs of infrastructure construction (it is suggested to pay attention to: China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) and other central enterprises); Optimistic about the trend of affordable housing and the investment opportunities of prefabricated buildings (it is recommended to pay attention to: Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) , Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Zhejiang Yasha Decoration Co.Ltd(002375) , etc.); Some undervalued local state-owned enterprises also have good allocation value (recommended attention: Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) , Shaanxi Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600248) , Henan Provincial Communications Planning & Design Institute Co.Ltd(300732) , etc.).
Preferred portfolio: Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) (15xpe, optimistic about the equipment rental track), China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) (0.6xpb, revaluation of the value of existing operating assets), China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) (0.6xpb, optimistic about the improvement of real estate business against the trend), Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) (13xpe, the volume and price of ceramic fiber leaders rise together under the emission reduction trend), Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (9xpe, the performance elasticity of float glass and the valuation elasticity brought by photovoltaic glass) Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) (26xpe, UTG volume is imminent, new electronic material value discovery). Note: the valuations are the 22-year forecast data of Everbright Building Materials team.
Risk analysis: infrastructure investment is less than expected; Real estate investment fell sharply; Rising raw fuel prices; The epidemic situation is repeated.
