This week's research focus: Comments on the data of the staff of small household appliance business in February
Overall, affected by the dislocation of the Spring Festival, all categories rebounded to varying degrees in February after the growth pressure in January. By category, the cumulative year-on-year improvement of small kitchen electricity from January to February is expected to be gradually repaired; Due to the off-season sales of clean appliances, the overall sales remained stable from January to February, and some emerging tracks maintained a high boom; In personal care massage, razors, massage equipment and other categories performed well, while massage chairs continued to be under pressure.
Kitchen appliances: the sales volume of major brands from January to February has improved year-on-year, and the demand for kitchen appliances is expected to improve month on month
Category side: affected by the dislocation of the Spring Festival, the growth rate has warmed up, and the growth rate of emerging categories has been differentiated. By category, kitchen appliances are obviously affected by the dislocation of the Spring Festival and other factors, and the growth rate in February is significantly higher than that in January. Relatively speaking, the dislocation effect of the Spring Festival is more obvious for traditional small kitchen appliances. The growth rate of main categories has changed from negative to positive month on month. Although the growth rate of emerging small kitchen appliances also improved month on month in February due to the dislocation of the Spring Festival, it still shows a differentiation trend: popular categories such as air fryers maintain high growth rate, while categories such as multi-functional pots and cooking machines continue to fall.
Brand side: the cumulative year-on-year improvement from January to February, and the demand for small kitchen electricity is gradually repaired. From the data side, affected by the dislocation of the Spring Festival, the growth rate of major brands of kitchen and small electricity in February was improved compared with that in January, while the cumulative year-on-year growth rate from January to February achieved growth. We believe that after last year's weak demand and downward growth, the growth rate of small kitchen electricity has gradually picked up, and the demand is expected to improve month on month.
Clean electrical appliances: the growth rate of sales slowed down in the off-season, and the prosperity of subdivided circuits remained stable
Category end: growth differentiation, segmentation and track prosperity maintenance. By category, the dislocation of the Spring Festival has a certain impact on the growth differentiation in different months since the beginning of the year, and the clean electrical appliances as a whole still maintain a high outlook compared with other categories. Generally speaking, the first quarter is the off-season for the sales of clean appliances because it has just experienced the great promotion season at the end of last year and the new products in 22 years have not been released, which can not fully reflect the overall sales trend of the whole year.
Brand side: from January to February, the growth rate of sales slowed down in the off-season. From the cumulative year-on-year perspective from January to February, different brands have a differentiation trend according to different growth rates of main categories. From the absolute value, the transaction amount of main brands in January and February is lower than that in December last year, which is in the off-season and can not fully reflect the subsequent sales trend. We believe that the sales of clean appliances are obviously affected by the promotion of new products and promotion. With the release of new products and 618 promotion activities, it is expected to continue to inject vitality into the track.
Personal massage: the massage chair continues to fall, and the razor and massage small electricity achieve growth
Category end: massage chairs continued to fall, and razors and massage small electricity increased. Personal care massage appliances are relatively less affected by the dislocation effect of the Spring Festival, the growth rate of massage chairs has dropped, and the growth rate of razors and other traditional categories and massage equipment categories dominated by massage small electricity has remained relatively stable.
Brand side: the growth rate of Feike is bright, and the growth rate of massage equipment brands is relatively stable. From the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of various brands from January to February: the growth rate of Feike razor category is outstanding. Benefiting from factors such as Valentine's Day gift box sales, the cumulative growth rate from January to February achieved a significant increase Shenzhen Breo Technology Co.Ltd(688793) transaction amount growth continued the previous downward trend; The growth rate of Rongtai, Xiamen Comfort Science & Technology Group Co.Ltd(002614) and other main categories of massage chairs slowed down, which was consistent with the overall growth rate of the category, but the growth rate of massage equipment and other categories was faster. Price trend of raw materials: on March 5, 2022, the spot settlement prices of SHFE copper and aluminum were 72840 and 23545 yuan / ton respectively; SHFE copper was + 3.06% and aluminum was + 4.57% compared with last week. Since 2022, copper price + 4.52%, aluminum price + 16.16%. On March 5, 2022, the China Plastics price index was 100674, up from + 2.24% last week and + 1.38% since 2022. On March 4, 2022, the comprehensive price index of steel was 137.56, which was + 1.19% compared with the price last week and + 4.37% since 2022.
Investment suggestion: due to the uncertain repair intensity of short-term demand, rising cost, unknown overseas demand and other factors, the home appliance industry still belongs to the attribute of medium and long-term value allocation / defense on the basis of reasonable valuation, and the short-term trading strategy is based on band. In the short term, we believe that the targets with better performance visibility and data will stabilize, such as [ Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) ], [ Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) ], [ Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) ], [ Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) ], [ Shanghai Flyco Electrical Appliance Co.Ltd(603868) ], [ Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) ], etc; In the medium and long term, it is still in a good position to gradually accumulate the target chips with growth. The growth comes from: 1) the acquisition of long-term overseas share, such as the high proportion of white electricity overseas and floor sweepers; 2) China's growth, such as clean appliances and new kitchen appliances; 3) Transformation of the second curve, such as auto zero, photovoltaic and other 2B businesses.
Risk tip: the expansion of the epidemic situation, the risk of fluctuations in the real estate market, exchange rate and raw material prices, etc.
