Pig: with sufficient safety margin, continue to recommend pig sector
Investment suggestion: the pig sector is still in an important layout window period at present: 1) the elimination of fertile sows has continued, and the elimination of fertile sows has decreased month by month since July last year. Even during the sharp rebound of pig prices from October to November, the affordability of the breeding industry is greatly weakened from the expected loss to the aggravation of real loss, The depopulation of fertile sows will be strengthened. Therefore, it is currently at the inflection point of depopulation; 2) The trend of double bottom of pig price is clear. From the experience of previous cycles, the three complete pig cycles experienced since 2006 are double bottom. In the first half of this year, the contradiction between supply and demand is further intensified. At the same time, the pressure on the cost side is increased and the breeding loss is intensified, which is expected to gradually bring about double bottom; 3) In terms of valuation, although the sector has rebounded recently, the valuation is still in the bottom area, with sufficient upward elasticity. On the whole, it is still an important investment window for the sector. Continue to recommend the pig sector, focusing on the leading Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , followed by the second tier pig enterprises New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , etc.
Poultry: white chickens need to wait for changes in the industry and be optimistic about the fundamentals of Yellow Chickens throughout the year
Investment suggestion: for yellow chicken, the price fluctuates obviously due to the decline of demand in the short term, and the price change trend is different due to the different impact of the epidemic situation. Throughout the year, yellow chicken is expected to show a trend of first low and then high after the continuous elimination of production capacity, and the industry fundamentals are expected to regain an upward trend. With the withdrawal of small and medium-sized production capacity and the further improvement of industry concentration, we continue to be optimistic about the investment opportunities of Huangji sector, and recommend Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) .
Animal protection: the sector is at the bottom of the valuation, focusing on the catalysis of non plague vaccine
Investment suggestion: affected by the loss of downstream breeding, the boom of the animal protection industry has declined, and the performance of some enterprises has declined. Affected by this, the overall valuation of the animal protection sector has fallen to a historical low. In the long run, the downstream large-scale process, the change in the demand for reduced and alternative antibodies, and the research and development of multi linked and multivalent new vaccines are expected to continue to promote the expansion of the animal protection industry. The research and development of non classical swine fever vaccine has made steady progress, and many enterprises have made positive progress. They pay attention to the catalytic effect of African classical swine fever vaccine. We mainly recommend Tianjin Ringpu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(300119) , Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526) , followed by Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) , China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) , etc.
Planting: global grain prices have increased significantly
Investment suggestion: the prices of wheat and corn remain high, and the demand for seeds remains high. In the long run, the revision of the seed law is conducive to the improvement of industry concentration and the market share of leading companies. The commercialization of medium – and long-term genetically modified seeds will continue. Recommend Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , pay attention to Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , etc.
Feed: feed prices continue to rise, and corn is still the main energy raw material
Investment suggestion: it is expected that the overall production and sales of feed will continue to grow in the first half of 2022, especially pig feed, aquatic feed and ruminant feed. The rising prices of feed raw materials such as corn and soybean meal slightly squeeze the gross profit margin of feed processing, but the leading enterprises have a strong ability to transfer costs to downstream breeding plants, and the market share is expected to increase. Highlight Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) , and pay attention to Hefeng animal husbandry.
Pets: be optimistic about the consumption and growth attributes of pet tracks
Investment suggestion: we believe that the fundamentals of China’s pet industry are still in rapid development. Although the epidemic has led to a decline in the growth rate of China’s pet consumption, we are still optimistic about the development prospect of the pet consumption market in the post epidemic era; With the declining Engel coefficient of pet consumption and the rising trend of pet consumption upgrading, the proportion of consumption in pet diagnosis and treatment, pet supplies, pet nutrition and health care, pet services and other fields is expected to continue to rise in the future. Compared with other market segments, pet food and pet medical have natural advantages. We mainly recommend Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) and Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) , and Tianjin Ringpu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(300119) , which are related to pet health care and medical treatment.
Industry rating and investment strategy: the pig price is in the process of the second bottom of the w bottom. At present, the downward space of the pig price is very limited. The sector, especially the leading valuation, is still at the bottom, with sufficient margin of safety; The fundamentals of Huangji industry have maintained an upward trend after continuous capacity removal. With the withdrawal of small and medium-sized capacity, the industry concentration has further improved, and the investment opportunities of Huangji sector have been continuously optimistic; In terms of seed industry, the revision of Seed Law and the promotion of transgenic commercialization will promote the improvement of industry concentration and the expansion of market space, and continue to be optimistic about the growth of leading enterprises; In terms of feed, the recovery of pig production capacity will continue to support the feed sales in the first half of the year, and pay attention to the price of feed raw materials in the second half of the year; In terms of dynamic insurance, it is in the period of industry reform. With the improvement of industry concentration, the advantages of leading enterprises will be gradually clear; Be optimistic about the consumption and growth attributes of pet track. Give the industry a rating of “recommended”.
Risk tip: focus on the risk that the company’s performance is lower than expected, the risk of sharp fluctuation of market price caused by emergencies, the risk of epidemic disease in the breeding industry, the risk of policy uncertainty, the risk of price fluctuation, the risk of extreme weather, etc.
