Events
As of December 2021, a total of 22 banks listed on the parent bank’s express report, with a growth rate of more than 22% of their net profit in 2021.
Comments
Listed banks have strong performance toughness, and urban commercial banks have outstanding performance. In 2020, with the release of provisions under the superposition of low base effect and risk mitigation, the net profit attributable to the parent of listed banks increased significantly in 2021. Among them, the performance of urban commercial banks is outstanding. The revenue and net profit of Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) and Qilu Bank Co.Ltd(601665) have achieved a high growth rate of more than 20%. The growth rates of revenue and net profit of parent company in 2021 are 22.57% / 30.72%, 28.24% / 29.67% and 28.11% / 20.52% respectively. Excluding the influence of the low base number of epidemic factors in 2020, commercial banks still show strong performance robustness. Among the listed banks that disclosed the performance express in 2021, the two-year compound growth rate of operating revenue of joint-stock banks / urban commercial banks / rural commercial banks from 2019 to 2021 was 8.72% / 13.74% / 5.74% respectively, and the two-year compound growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent was 10.85% / 11.83% / 7.32%, all in a high growth range, The performance growth of urban commercial banks is leading.
The high growth of loans boosted the growth of total assets, increased the pressure to attract deposits, and the growth of deposits slowed down. In 2021, the structural monetary policy made frequent efforts to encourage the credit funds of commercial banks to flow to the fields of inclusive small and micro enterprises, high-end manufacturing and green economy. The financing demand of small and micro enterprises remained strong, and the credit supply of regional banks with the advantages of small and micro financial business increased significantly. In 2021, the total loans of Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Qilu Bank Co.Ltd(601665) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) and Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) increased by 25.45% / 26.07% / 23.59% / 21.41% respectively year-on-year, driving the total assets to increase by 23.88% / 20.31% / 18.17% / 13.64% year-on-year respectively. At the deposit level, the overall deposit growth of listed banks slowed down in 2021, which is mainly due to the continuous restriction of high interest rate deposit solicitation by commercial banks since 2021, and the diversion of deposits caused by the awakening of residents’ financial awareness, which makes it more difficult for commercial banks to solicit deposits. Some regional banks still maintain a high growth rate of deposit scale by virtue of their dense local network layout and meticulous and comprehensive services. For example, the growth rate of deposits in Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) , Qilu Bank Co.Ltd(601665) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) and Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) in 2021 was 15.2% / 19.7% / 15.1% / 17.1% respectively.
Asset quality continued to improve, and the non-performing rate decreased month on month. Since the third quarter of 2021, with the implementation and correction of the real estate policy by the regulators, the dual efforts of monetary policy and fiscal policy have been made to “stabilize the economy”, the business environment of enterprises has improved, the cash flow has warmed up, the credit risk of commercial banks has been mitigated, and the non-performing rate has decreased month on month. In terms of asset quality performance, joint-stock banks urban commercial banks rural commercial banks, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) and China Everbright Bank Company Limited Co.Ltd(601818) non-performing rates decreased by 2bp / 2bp / 9bp / 3bp respectively compared with the end of the third quarter. In recent years, the stock risk of commercial banks has been cleared, the pressure of new generation of non-performing assets under low risk preference is small, and the clean and excellent asset quality still has strong sustainability.
The provision coverage increased significantly year-on-year, and the risk resilience continued to improve. Among the listed banks that disclose the 2021 year’s fast report, except for Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\. 79pct, 171.67pct and 106.77pct, While the ability to resist risks continues to increase, enough space is reserved for the release of future profits.
Investment advice
As of March 4, 22 listed banks have disclosed their performance letters for 2021, of which 12 banks’ scale net profit has increased by more than 20%, and their performance has exceeded market expectations. Looking forward to 2022, the aggregate and structural monetary policies will continue to increase, the credit environment will continue to improve, the growth rate of social finance will enter the upward range, and the amount of bank credit is imminent. Under the pressure of net interest margin, commercial banks may “make up the price by volume”, and the beautiful performance growth is expected to continue. At present, the valuation of the banking sector is low and the allocation value is prominent. Therefore, we suggest to actively pay attention to the banking sector and urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks with high-quality regional economic environment and strong performance growth toughness.
The risk suggests that the macroeconomic growth rate is down; The implementation of the policy was less than expected.
