Core view
[market performance] last week, the CSI 300 index closed at 449643 points, up or down – 1.68% in one week and – 8.99% year to date; The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 344765, up or down – 0.11% in one week and – 5.28% year to date. Among the 31 primary industries in Shenwan, the top three rose last week were coal (10.25%), transportation (3.65%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (3.49%); The top three declines were automobile (- 4.47%), electronics (- 4.26%) and power equipment (- 3.54%). The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector rose or fell 3.49% last week, ranking third. Since the beginning of the year, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector has increased or decreased by – 0.50%, ranking ninth.
[key information]
[national development and Reform Commission: it will immediately start the collection and storage of frozen pork in the central reserve] on February 28, the national development and Reform Commission said that it will immediately start the collection and storage of frozen pork in the central reserve. The central storage network will issue the notice on the evening of March 2023 and April 2024, respectively. (source: Huachu network)
[Key announcement]
[ Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ] announcement on the acquisition of the equity of some holding subsidiaries of Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) company: the company plans to acquire all the equity of Deyang Zhengbang, Danling Zhengbang and Chongqing Guanglian held by Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) holding subsidiaries; As well as the acquisition of 51% equity of five companies held by it, including Yunnan Guanglian, Kunming xinhaonong, Yunnan Dajing, Guiyang Zhengbang and Yunnan Guangde, with a total transaction price of about 2-2.5 billion yuan.
[opinion]
In the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the rise of feed prices has increased and the deregulation of production capacity has accelerated. According to pig Yitong data, on March 4, the price of live pigs was 12.48 yuan / kg, up 0.16% on a weekly basis, and the price of pigs in various regions was stable. The planned slaughter of pigs in March increased by 10% – 15% compared with the actual completion in February, and the supply is still loose. On the demand side, the consumption is still in the off-season in March after the festival, and it is difficult to significantly increase the consumption of pigs. Recently, the national development and Reform Commission launched the collection and storage of frozen pork in the central reserve, which will stabilize market sentiment in the stalemate of supply and demand game after the festival and bring benefits to the short-term boost of pig prices, but it has limited impact on the long-term supply and demand relationship. At the same time, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to the rise of grain prices and feed prices have catalyzed the pressure on breeding enterprises.
Germplasm qualification should be protected, and transgenic seed enterprises may take advantage of the east wind. During the two sessions, deputies to the National People’s Congress put forward suggestions to further strengthen China’s seed safety, emphasizing efforts to protect China’s germplasm resources, improve the gene bank of key seeds, overcome key seed difficulties, and strengthen investment in seed R & D. We believe that with the improvement of intellectual property protection mechanism and the continuous increase of seed R & D investment, and the continuous optimization of competition pattern, the seed industry is expected to reshape the industry pattern, and enterprises with core biological breeding technology are expected to take advantage of the policy to continuously improve their market share.
Investment advice
Pig breeding: the pig market has loose supply and stable demand in the short term. The central collection and storage action has boosted the confidence of the industry, and the pig price is expected to stop falling and stabilize. It is suggested to pay attention to breeding enterprises with significant cost control advantages, stable operation and excellent disease prevention and control.
Seed industry: enterprises with core biological breeding technology are expected to take advantage of the policy to continuously improve their market share. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading seed industry with obvious advantages in the field of transgenic.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic fluctuations; Non plague situation; Extreme weather effects, etc.
