Industry core view:
Last week, the basic chemical industry index fell 3.21%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.68% in the same period, and the basic chemical industry index underperformed the market by 1.53 percentage points in the same period. The petroleum and petrochemical index fell 2.24%, underperforming the market by 0.55 percentage points in the same period. Among them, Guangxi Hechi Chemical Co.Ltd(000953) (44.79%), North Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(002246) (20.65%), Anhui Annada Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(002136) (16.80%), Liuzhou Liangmianzhen Co.Ltd(600249) (15.32%), Shandong Bailong Chuangyuan Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(605016) (15.10%) ranked among the top five; The companies with the top five declines were: Jiangsu Shuangxing Color Plastic New Materials Co.Ltd(002585) (- 14.95%), Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) (- 14.50%), Shanghai Kinlita Chemical Co.Ltd(300225) (- 14.34%), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (- 13.87%), Jiangsu Lopal Tech.Co.Ltd(603906) (- 13.71%).
Key investment points:
International crude oil: last week, international crude oil prices continued to rise broadly. During the week, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia continued, and the negotiations have not yet reached a final result. The OPEC + crude oil production plan remained unchanged, and the crude oil inventory of the United States continued to decline. According to the data released by the EIA, the crude oil inventory decreased by 2.597 million barrels as of the week of February 25. The market was worried about the interruption of energy supply, which pushed up the oil price again. The oil distribution was close to the $120 mark on Thursday, Reached a high of $119.84 / barrel. On March 4, the futures settlement prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil were US $115.68/barrel and US $118.11/barrel respectively, up 26.30% and 20.61% month on month on the 7th respectively. To ease the rise in oil prices, the IEA announced the release of 60 million barrels of crude oil reserves, of which the United States will release 30 million barrels of crude oil reserves. The follow-up is about to enter the peak oil consumption season. Under the uncertain geographical situation, it is difficult to alleviate the market concern. It is expected that the international crude oil price will remain high and fluctuate in the short term, and drive the price of downstream petrochemical products to rise.
Glyphosate: last week, the price of glyphosate in China fell slightly. According to the statistics of Baichuan Yingfu, as of March 4, the quotation of individual glyphosate suppliers was 74 Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000780) 00 yuan / ton, 95% of the raw powder transaction reference was 7250073000 yuan / ton, and the volume can be preferential. The average market transaction price was about 72800 yuan / ton, down 3.96% month on month on the 7th, down 9.34% from the beginning of the year, and the port FOB reference was 11500 dollars / ton. On the supply side, at present, the operating rate of mainstream suppliers remains high. It is expected that the "two sessions" will have a limited impact on the operation of glyphosate production enterprises, and the glyphosate inventory will gradually rise; On the demand side, downstream manufacturers purchase on demand, and the inquiry is relatively light; On the cost side, at present, the price of yellow phosphorus continues to be high, the price of glycine decreases significantly, and glyphosate still maintains a considerable profit level. In the short term, glyphosate prices may continue to fall under the condition of sufficient market supply.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, we will mainly recommend three main investment lines: 1 Under the background of policy control, production and supply are becoming more stringent, while the demand side is still supportive in various sub sectors, such as pesticides, fertilizers and refrigerants; 2. Resource based chemical industry segments that rely on new energy and seek industrial transformation and upgrading from upstream materials, lengthen their business cycle and improve valuation, such as phosphorus chemical industry; 3. High value-added new materials with significant domestic substitution trend, such as semiconductor materials and display materials, which are key planning during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Risk factors: the risk of continuous fluctuation of international crude oil price, the risk of repeated impact of epidemic situation in some parts of China on enterprise operation, and the risk of sharp fluctuation of chemical product price.
