Core view
Air conditioning production scheduling tracking: Q1 air conditioning production scheduling achieved steady growth, and the operation returned to normal. Industry online data show that in March, the output of air conditioning industry increased by 3.1% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year, of which the output of domestic sales increased by 5% compared with the same period last year, and the output of export sales increased by 14% compared with the same period last year. Q1 air conditioning production increased by 4.1% year-on-year, including domestic sales increased by 1.7% and export sales increased by 11.7%. On the whole, the production of air conditioners started steadily and has returned to a more normal operating state, laying a good foundation for the whole year. From the perspective of branches, Hisense Q1 air conditioning production increased by more than 30%, leading the industry; Midea and Haier’s air-conditioning production Q1 increased by about 10% and continued to maintain steady growth.
Air conditioning sales tracking: affected by the forward movement of the Spring Festival holiday, sales fell in January. In January 2022, the sales volume of the air conditioning industry reached 13.31 million units / – 5%, of which the domestic sales fell by 9% and the export sales fell by 2%. The decline is expected to be mainly affected by the advance of the Spring Festival. Referring to the Spring Festival in 2014, the sales volume in January 2014 decreased by 5% year-on-year, and the domestic and foreign sales were – 2% / – 7% respectively, while the domestic sales increased by 41% in February. In terms of branches, Hisense and Haier performed relatively well. Haier’s air-conditioning sales increased by 17% year-on-year in January, Hisense increased by 18% year-on-year, and Midea and Gree’s air-conditioning sales fell by about 8% in January.
Integrated stove: under the disturbance of the Spring Festival, the growth momentum does not decrease, and the permeability continues to rise. The sales volume of integrated stoves increased by 6.2% year-on-year. Taking the sales volume of integrated stoves / (sales volume of integrated stoves + sales volume in range hood) as the penetration rate of integrated stoves, the penetration rate of integrated stoves increased by 2.4pct to 10.1% year-on-year in January, and the increase range increased by 1.7pct year-on-year in January 2021. The penetration rate continued to rise significantly.
Tracking of US household appliance consumption expenditure: US household appliance consumption expenditure increased by more than 7% in January. In January 2022, the consumption expenditure of household appliances in the United States increased by 7.2% year-on-year, of which the expenditure of large household appliances increased by 7.1% year-on-year, and the expenditure of small household appliances (personal care + kitchen and living) increased by 7.7% year-on-year. Under the high base (an increase of 21.8% in January 2021), the growth rate of household appliance consumption expenditure in the United States is still high, and cross-border household appliance enterprises going to sea are expected to continue to benefit.
Key data tracking: market performance: Monthly relative income of household appliance sector in February + 1.67%. Raw materials: copper and aluminum prices in LME3 months in February were – 1.1% and – 2.5% month on month respectively. Copper and aluminum prices remained volatile after the high level fell; Cold rolled sheet prices fell rapidly, with a month on month ratio of – 6.5%. Container transportation index: the US West / US East / European line was + 3.28%, – 1.35%, – 5.59% month on month in February respectively; Capital flow: the shareholding ratio of land stock link, a key company, declined. In February, the shareholding ratio of Midea / Gree / Haier land stock link was – 0.57%, – 1.29%, + 0.26% month on month.
Suggestions on core investment portfolio: white power recommends Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , efficiency improvement and continuous promotion of channel reform; Kitchen electricity recommends high growth and strong incentive integrated stove leader Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) , and second-line leader of all-round improvement Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) ; Smart projection faucet Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) , 2b and 2C go hand in hand Appotronics Corporation Limited(688007) .
Risk warning: the epidemic situation leads to fluctuations in production and marketing; Intensified market competition; Demand growth is less than expected; The price of raw materials has risen sharply
