Key points of this week:
A shares fell this week, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 344765, with a weekly change of – 0.11%. The weekly change of the food and beverage sector was – 1.96%, which was weaker than the Shanghai index by – 1.85 percentage points, ranking 22nd in the shenwanyi industry classification.
This week, the food and beverage sectors rose from high to low: health products (7.27%), meat products (4.19%), beer (2.48%), dairy products (-0.07%), flavoring fermentation (-0.29%), snack foods (-1.51%), soft drinks (-1.56%), Baijiu (-2.89%), other alcoholic beverages (-3.05%) and preprocessed foods (-4.70%).
[Baijiu]: enter a good investment range, grasp the opportunity of long term bottom area, and look at the long-term profit from the macro. Since the Spring Festival, the Baijiu sector has a larger callback range, on the one hand, it is affected by the epidemic on some market. On the other hand, the increase in interest rates in Europe and the United States has led to tighter expectations of foreign capital liquidity. The overall valuation of Baijiu is still higher than the historical average, and the market investment style has been adjusted. At present, from the valuation level, the whole has entered the price range, and some Baijiu valuation has dropped to even lower than the 2019 level. In the short term, the current epidemic still has a dynamic sales impact on some markets. It is expected that the overall dynamic sales will remain stable and weak in the short term of 1-2 months. There is still pressure on the delivery of wine enterprises and the transmission and landing of price increase of mainstream single products. At the same time, there are repeated outflows and inflows from the north, but some investors have expected at present. Standing in the present, we think we should go beyond the short-term macro distance and look at Baijiu investment based on the long cycle. We should grasp the overall upgrading and optimization of the industry and the differentiation and growth stages of the stocks, and some high-quality leading enterprises have entered the bottom area, with a long term and better yield base.
Based on the long cycle and short term, there is a high probability of spring planting and autumn harvest. In the short term, from the perspective of payment collection and delivery of liquor enterprises, Q1 performance will remain stable, providing short-term confidence for investment. Some liquor enterprises are still catalyzed by positive events such as price increase expectation of large single products and equity incentive expectation this year. With the setting and implementation of the annual economic objectives, the overall consumption environment is expected to gradually climb and brewing a better dynamic sales performance. Considering the continuous improvement of the comprehensive competitiveness of famous and high-quality wine enterprises and the safety margin of high-end and sub high-end leading valuations, we are positive and optimistic about the outlook of the whole year and suggest to actively grasp it. Highlight the high-end maowu Luzhou, secondary high-end Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , etc.
[beer]: with strong demand, the price increase was conducted smoothly, and the superposition of leading high-end new products benefited from the accuracy of epidemic control and the gradual arrival of peak season. In February, the supply and marketing of beer industry were booming, and the focus strategy of head liquor enterprises on key markets was effective. In the 21st year, the price rise of upstream bulk commodities put pressure on the cost side of the beer industry. In order to cope with the rising cost, the prices of 21q4 and some regions and products around the Spring Festival have increased one after another. For example, Carlsberg has increased the price of 620ml red Wusu since February 1, 2022. At present, with the help of demand, the consumer has a good acceptance of the early price increase and the price transmission is smooth. On the other hand, the high-end industry has been upgraded and accelerated again. This week, heavy beer again launched alcohol free beer, Lebao special flavor and other high-end new products. China Resources will also launch high-end new products, whole wheat pure raw in 2022. The current price raising strategy helps to form a new price system before the peak season. From the perspective of fundamentals, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , and China Resources beer stand side by side as the first judge. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) potential reform opportunities.
[condiment]: at present, the cost remains high. After the correction, it is suggested to bargain hunting. At present, the stock price of condiment has a certain correction due to cost pressure. But from the fundamental point of view, after the Spring Festival, the demand is stable, the moving sales remain normal, and the inventory is also in a reasonable range. Although the bulk price rose further after the festival, which put pressure on the cost of enterprises, especially soy sauce enterprises, soybean rose relatively large (the futures price has reached more than 6200 yuan / ton, an increase of about 7% since the beginning of this year). However, it is expected that the price increase implemented last year can alleviate some upward pressure on costs, and Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) have basically completed channel price transmission. On the other hand, from the month on month perspective, it is expected that the income and profit elasticity of some condiments will increase under the low base from Q2 this year. It is suggested to layout condiments on a bargain hunting basis. Considering that the market has experienced a certain correction, Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , which has relatively high certainty and elasticity, and Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , which has more short-term correction, are recommended at present.
[dairy products]: the demand for dairy products is strong, and the marketing cost rate of the Winter Olympic Games is raised. Despite the slowdown of consumption power and the repeated impact of the epidemic, the demand for dairy products continues to be strong thanks to the support of major health categories. From October 2021 to the first quarter of 2022, dairy enterprises such as Yili, Feihe, Mengniu and JUNLEBAO competed for the marketing of the Winter Olympic Games. Su Yiming and Gu ailing, spokesmen signed by Yili and Mengniu respectively, and Wang Meng, a close friend of Feihe brand, rushed to hot search with wonderful explanations. JUNLEBAO became “China’s official dairy partner of ice and snow”. Therefore, the sales expense rate in the fourth quarter was higher than that in the same period. The epidemic deepened consumers’ demand for milk, and the overall dynamic sales basically achieved the goal of a good start. We believe that although the overall supply and demand of raw milk was tight in 22 years, the year-on-year growth slowed down, the cost pressure of dairy enterprises weakened, and the slowing competition will accelerate the release of profits. The dairy industry focuses on Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Mengniu Dairy, China flying crane, New Hope Dairy Co.Ltd(002946) .
[quick frozen food]: there is a strong demand for prefabricated Dishes & frozen baking. During the Spring Festival, many governments launched local spring festival initiatives to further tap the needs of residents, improve the consumption habits of C-end consumers and the business strategy of b-end catering enterprises. After the festival, the upsurge of prefabricated vegetables has not weakened, and the supply chain has also ushered in sustainable development. With the improvement of the demand for convenient and fast meal preparation, the prosperity of industrialized food products such as prefabricated dishes and frozen baking is better, focusing on Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) .
Baijiu channel dynamics
[ Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) ]: this week, Feitian rated 3130 for the whole box (chain comparison – 30 yuan), and 2755 for the bulk bottle (chain comparison – 35 yuan). At present, the dealer has started to collect the payment in March. At present, the payment is still collected according to 969. The dealer has not been notified to hold a meeting and has not signed a 22-year contract. Maotai 1935 is priced at 1575 yuan, a month on month increase of – 75 yuan, mainly due to the new quota in place recently, and 3000 tons are expected to be put into operation in the whole year of 22 years.
[ Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ]: this week’s general five bid price is 965 yuan (month on month – 5 yuan), the seventh generation general five bid price is 970 yuan, which exceeds the eighth generation general five, and the general five has a strong willingness to replenish. At present, the first quarter payment collection has been completed, some dealers have completed the annual payment collection, and completed the quota delivery in March. The delivery progress is more than 35-40%. The Spring Festival mobile sales have performed well, and the inventory has been fully digested. At present, the inventory has fallen back to within 20 days – 1 month.
[ Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) ]: this week’s national cellar price is 920 yuan (unchanged month on month). At present, the payment collection of Q1 has been completed. The payment collection progress is 40-50%, the delivery progress is 30-40%, and the remaining 10%. The reissue will be started along with the payment of Q2 from March 1.
In the new round of payment, different dealers have different proportion of unplanned 960. Some dealers fully pay according to 960, and the manufacturer subsidizes the upside down price difference. At present, the channel inventory is less than 1 month.
[ Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) ]: this week, M6 + has a low rating of 600 yuan, a height of about 650 yuan (the same month on month), m3 crystal bottle has a low rating of 405415 yuan (the same month on month in the Research Report on the dynamics of the industry), a height of about 460 yuan (the same month on month), sky blue has a low rating of 230 yuan, a height of 305 yuan, and sea blue has a low rating of 125 yuan (the same month on month), and the performance of sea blue outside the province has improved, The height is 143 yuan (month on month + 1 yuan). At present, the average progress of payment collection is 40-50%, the delivery is consistent with the payment collection, and the inventory is within 1.5 months. A small amount of goods will be replenished in March, and the average progress of payment collection will reach 45% – 50%.
[Jiannanchun]: the rated price of crystal sword this week is 395 yuan (the same month on month). During the Spring Festival, restrictions on large-scale banquets in some areas have a phased impact on Jiannanchun’s dynamic sales. At present, Jiannanchun has completed the delivery in February, but has not fully arrived, and the channel inventory has maintained a healthy level for about two months.
[willing]: this week, taste is willing to bid 345 yuan and wisdom is willing to bid 455 yuan. After a small amount of replenishment at the end of February, the payment progress is about 30%. At present, the channel inventory is at the normal level of about 1-1.5 months.
[ Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) ]: the price of zhenniang No. 8 this week is 320 yuan (the same month on month), and the price of well platform is 440 yuan (the same month on month). At present, the payment collection is about 30% – 35% at a good start. After full delivery, the channel inventory is within 2 months, and the mobile sales are stable during the Spring Festival.
[ Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) ]: the price of Guoyuan Xinsi opening this week is about 420435 yuan, and the price of counter opening is about 260 yuan, which is the same month on month. 22q1 Spring Festival peak season collection is about 35% – 40%, and the average inventory level is about 1.5 months.
[ Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) ]: this week, the wholesale price of Qinghua 30 revival version is 830 yuan (the same month on month), the high wholesale price of Qinghua 20 is 375 yuan (the same month on month), the low wholesale price is 350 yuan (the same month on month), and the wholesale price of Bofen (12 bottles) is 520 yuan (the same month on month). The quota system is strictly adopted for Qinghua series and Bofen, and the inventory is maintained at a low level within one month. Fenjiu started the Spring Festival peak season in January. At present, it has completed about 30% – 35%, and the delivery progress is about 30%. After arrival, the dynamic sales performance is good.
[ Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) ]: the bidding price of this week is 810820 yuan (the same month on month), and the bidding price of hongtan is 290 yuan (the same month on month). At present, the proportion of payment collection is about 40%. The inventory in Hunan channel is about one month and that outside the province is about two months. The dynamic sales remain benign, and the sales volume of participation in the province has a double-digit growth.
The key recommendation: still maintain the first quarter Baijiu dominant judgement, the key recommendation: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) . Food stocks continue to be bullish: Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , etc.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation repeatedly affects consumption; The economy is in recession.
