Industry core view:
Last week, the Shenwan retail trade index fell 1.61%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.50 percentage points. From the social zero data released by the Bureau of statistics, the social zero in December was + 1.7% year-on-year. Affected by the sporadic outbreak of the epidemic in China, the growth rate was 2.2 PCT lower than that in November. We believe that in the short term, the epidemic will counterattack and the consumer market will face uncertainty. However, with the more accurate and effective epidemic prevention and control and the gradual implementation of the “steady growth” economic policy, China’s consumption is expected to return to a stable growth trend in the future. Suggestions and concerns: ① gold jewelry: the recent intensification of geopolitical friction promotes the continuous rise of gold price and stimulates the consumption of gold jewelry. In the medium and long term, the increasing penetration of daily consumption, gift giving, investment and other scenarios under the concept of “pleasing oneself” has driven the steady expansion of the industry scale. In addition, the epidemic has accelerated the industry integration in the past two years. Jewelry leading enterprises have actively seized the market by seizing channels, upgrading brands and developing new products, and are optimistic about gold jewelry leading enterprises; ② Mother and baby: since the implementation of the three child policy, governments across the country have issued a number of birth incentive measures. It is expected that the birth rate is expected to boost in the future with the implementation of more relevant supporting measures and policies. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of mother and baby racing track in advance; ③ Cosmetics & Medical Beauty: under the beauty economy, there is a strong demand for cosmetics and medical beauty. Recently, a number of relevant regulations on cosmetics and medical beauty have been issued, and the industry is facing a reshuffle, which will benefit the leading companies of compliant cosmetics and medical beauty.
Key investment points:
Market review: last week (February 28 – March 6), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.11%, the Shenwan retail trade index fell 1.61%, and the retail trade index lost 1.50 percentage points to the Shanghai Composite Index, ranking 20th in the rise and fall of Shenwan 31 primary industry indexes. Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 5.28%, the commercial retail index has fallen by 6.49%, and the Shenwan commercial retail index has lost the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.21 percentage points, ranking 17th among the 31 primary sub industries of Shenwan.
Industry data: ① social zero data: in December 2021, China’s total retail sales of social consumer goods were + 1.7% year-on-year, with an average of + 3.1% in two years, 2.2 PCT lower than the growth rate in November 2021. Among the sub categories, the growth rate of retail sales of gold, silver, jewelry and cosmetics of units above the quota fell, with a year-on-year increase of – 0.20% and + 2.50% respectively. ② Raw material price data: last week, gold rose US $82.05 to US $197136/oz, and silver rose US $1.42 to US $25.68/oz. ③ E-commerce data: in January 2022, the turnover of Taoxi platform cosmetics (including beauty and skin care and color makeup) was 13.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 28%, and the turnover of jewelry was 8.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9%. In terms of cosmetics, the overall performance of Chinese and foreign brands was low in January, while Chinese brands love fire and Mao Geping performed better; In terms of jewelry, domestic, foreign and Hong Kong brands all have ups and downs, and domestic brands design circles, Zhejiang Ming Jewelry Co.Ltd(002574) , Caibai perform better.
Important announcement of listed companies: lifting the restrictions on the sale of Huahan shares Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) , Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co.Ltd(600655) and Hangzhou Haoyue Personal Care Co.Ltd(605009) repurchase progress Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) shareholder reduction Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) and C&S Paper Co.Ltd(002511) performance express. Important events in the industry: ① the performance trend of medical and American stocks in the previous year was both ice and fire; ② The care fee for infants under three years old shall be included in the special additional deduction of individual income tax; ③ China has become the largest exporter of French beauty products.
Risk factors:
