Key investment points
Overview: the terminal was weak in January. According to orvey, in January, the online retail sales of all categories were – 7% year-on-year, with a chain comparison of + 9%, and the offline sales were – 18% year-on-year, with a chain comparison of + 12%. We believe that this year’s Spring Festival is 21 years ahead of schedule, which has affected the sales of some household appliances with strong installation attributes.
White power: the delivery end of air conditioner decreased slightly: the domestic and foreign sales of air conditioner in January 2022 were – 9.4% / – 2.1% year-on-year respectively compared with the same period in 2021; – 24.8% / + 10.7% compared with the same period in 2019. Overall shipments were – 9.4% year-on-year. The retail end of white electricity decreased significantly: ① scale: the year-on-year growth rate of online sales of air and ice washing in January was – 20.4% / 6.7% / – 2.3% respectively; – 29.5% / – 16% / – 24.1% offline; ② Average price: the average price of washing machines fell. In January, the average online price of empty ice washing was + 7.5% / + 2.5% / – 6.0% year-on-year, and the average offline price was + 7.0% / + 13.3% / – 5.9% year-on-year; ③ Pattern: Haier’s air and ice washing performance is better, while beauty’s performance is weaker.
Kitchen electricity: the integrated stove performs better offline. ① Scale: in January, the sales volume of cigarette machines, stoves and integrated stoves was – 6.4% / – 8.2% / – 8.8%; Offline – 22.3% / – 14.7% / + 6.5% respectively, and the offline high increase of integrated stove. ② Average price: still in the upward channel. ③ Pattern: Fangtai’s share increased; The share of Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) , Yitian online in the integrated stove kept increasing.
Small household appliances: the sales of small kitchen appliances are under pressure, and the floor sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) boom continues. The performance of new kitchen categories is still under pressure; The online business of clean appliances is good, and the online / offline sales volume in January is + 7.7% / – 5.2% year-on-year; Sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) maintained prosperity, and online / offline sales increased by 20.4% / 2.5% year-on-year.
Investment suggestions:
① looking for stability: stronger profit recovery, recommended Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) ;
② looking for growth: stronger income growth. Recommend Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) , Appotronics Corporation Limited(688007) , Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) , Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) ;
③ find flexibility: pay attention to new opportunities in the industrial chain, recommend Ningbo Dechang Electrical Machinery Made Co.Ltd(605555) , pay attention to Zhejiang Dun’An Artificial Environment Co.Ltd(002011) , Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) , Skyworth Digital Co.Ltd(000810) .
Risk tip: the bulk price is rising, the terminal demand is less than expected, the industry competition is intensified, the third-party data is distorted, and the third-party data can not fully reflect the industry situation.
