Key investment points
Market Review
The auto sector fell - 4.47%, the CSI 300 index fell 1.68% in the same period, and the auto industry lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 2.8 percentage points. In terms of sector ranking, the auto industry ranked 31st among the 31 sectors of Shenwan last week, and its overall performance is not as good as that of other industries. The new energy vehicle index fell 5.50%. Among the sub sectors, the rise and fall of passenger vehicles / commercial trucks / commercial buses / auto parts / auto services this week were - 4.75% / - 2.40% / - 3.14% / - 4.80% / - 0.48% respectively.
Market hot spot
A number of new energy vehicle enterprises released their sales in February. China's sales in February were not weak in the off-season, Byd Company Limited(002594) performing beautifully. According to the prediction of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of the automobile industry in February is expected to be 1.666 million, with a month on month decrease of 34.2% and a year-on-year increase of 13.8%. Due to the small number of days in February and the Spring Festival holiday, the historical month on month growth rate of sales volume is about - 40%, and the month on month decline of sales volume in February 2022 is 34.2%, slightly better than the average, which is in line with the expectation. Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars in Byd Company Limited(002594) 2 month was 90268, up + 336.2% year on year and - 5.2% month on month; 8414 vehicles are expected to be delivered in February, with a year-on-year increase of + 265.8% and a month on month increase of - 31.4%; Xiaopeng delivered 6225 vehicles in February, with a year-on-year increase of + 180% and a month on month increase of - 51.8%; Weilai delivered 6131 vehicles in February, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.9% and a month on month increase of - 36.5%; Nezha delivered 7117 vehicles in February, with a year-on-year increase of + 255.5% and a month on month increase of - 35.4%; Zero run delivered 3435 vehicles in February, with a year-on-year increase of + 447% and a month on month increase of - 57.5%; GAC ea'an sold 8526 vehicles in February, with a year-on-year increase of + 162.7% and a month on month increase of - 46.8%; Geely krypton delivered 2916 vehicles in February, a month on month increase of - 17.4%.
Under the Russian Ukrainian war, the automobile supply chain was in urgent again, and the prices of overseas energy and bulk commodities rose rapidly. The escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the Western sanctions against Russia triggered further exacerbated the tension in the global supply chain. From the end of February to the beginning of March, some auto enterprises stopped production to varying degrees, including Renault, GM, Hyundai, Toyota, BMW, Volkswagen and other international well-known vehicle manufacturers. Russia is the main source of natural gas and oil in Europe. As a basic fuel and raw material, the sharp rise in the price of oil and natural gas will further exacerbate inflation in Europe and the United States. Russia is also a major exporter of aluminum and nickel. The sharp shortage of bulk commodities is increasing the inflation rate, and the short-term profits of the whole middle and lower reaches are under pressure.
This week's view: risks are concentrated and released, waiting for the light before dawn
In February, the sales volume was stable + the automobile supply chain was in urgent again under the Russian Ukrainian War + under the rapid rise of bulk and energy prices, multiple pessimistic expectations were released. For the current situation, please refer to 21q3. The short-term expectation of the sector bottomed out, waiting for the inflection point and ushering in better opportunities after adjustment. The escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the Western sanctions against Russia triggered further exacerbated the tension in the global supply chain. For example, the global head vehicle harness suppliers Lenny, Sumitomo Electric and anbofu have closed Ukrainian factories indefinitely. From the end of February to the beginning of March, some car enterprises in European countries stopped production to varying degrees. Russia is an important exporter of energy and some raw materials. The shortage has led to the rapid rise of short-term energy prices and bulk commodities. Under multiple factors, the market's expectation of the automobile sector has hit the bottom in the short term. For the current situation, please refer to 21q3, wait for the inflection point, and usher in better opportunities after adjustment. In terms of volume, referring to the 21q3 Southeast Asia epidemic chip supply chain crisis, the head independent and new forces have good sales toughness. On the cost side, the pressure of bulk price increase in 2021 is basically borne by the parts suppliers. This year, the price adjustment and subsidies of the main engine factory began to be reflected. At the current stage, it is recommended to select China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) , which has good performance toughness of decoupling sales, and Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , which have strong certainty of Tesla supply chain. The medium-term dimension continues to be optimistic about the rise of domestic production and electric intelligence, focusing on four sub areas: integrated die casting, intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit and localization of passenger car seats, providing better opportunities for callback.
Investment strategy and key recommendations
Under the background of chip shortage in 2021, the sales volume is under pressure, the industry inventory is at a historical low, the replenishment cycle + demand recovery, and the growth rate of passenger car sales in 2022 is expected to be 5-8%. In the field of complete vehicles, the independent rise in 2022 will continue to be deduced, which is mainly driven by the following three factors: 1) the mainstream price of pure electricity has been improved and the models have been further enriched; 2) Usher in the first year of hybrid independently and challenge the 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 fuel vehicle market; 3) With the acceleration of intelligence, the independent advantage is more obvious. We believe that the market share of new forces + Tesla + head is expected to continue to increase this year. In the field of parts and components, with the change of the pattern of downstream main engine manufacturers, the new forces and the independent market share of the head will continue to increase. The model iteration speed in the era of electric intelligence will accelerate, which will greatly improve the requirements of car enterprises for the response service efficiency of parts and components enterprises. The fixed zero adjustment relationship in the past is expected to be broken, and the domestic parts industry chain will rise with the trend, At the same time, the acceleration of electric intelligence has given birth to a large number of value-added parts and new industrial trends. We are optimistic about the rise of domestic and electric intelligence, and continue to focus on four sub areas: integrated die casting, driving intelligence, cockpit intelligence and localization of passenger car seats.
Passenger cars: recommend Byd Company Limited(002594) , Geely Automobile (H), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Xiao Peng, ideal and Wei Lai.
Parts and components of the ''s Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ (Tesla industrial chain), China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) (testing), etc, Focus on Foryou Corporation(002906) (HUD), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) (lightweight), Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , etc.
Risk tips
Chip supply is lower than expected; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
