Crude oil: prices rose sharply. In the early part of the week, the Russian Ukrainian war triggered concerns about energy supply interruption, pushing up the oil price [tablesummary], but the EIA crude oil inventory increased and the US sanctions against Russia were less than expected, and Russia negotiated with Ukraine, and the crude oil price rose first and then fell. In the late part of the week, the Russian military action against Ukraine intensified, the western countries imposed severe sanctions on the Russian banking industry, or restricted the export of Russian crude oil, and the market supply concerns further intensified. At the same time, OPEC + insisted on the original production increase plan. In addition, the decline of U.S. crude oil inventory last week exacerbated the market’s concerns about supply interruption, and the international crude oil price continued to rise sharply. At present, the weekly average price of Brent crude oil is 107.06 (+ 10.37) USD / barrel, and the weekly average price of WTI crude oil is 103.50 (+ 11.62) USD / barrel.
PX: the market has risen sharply. Cost side support continued to strengthen. On the supply side, fuhaichuang 800000t / a PX device was restarted at the end of February, and the overall supply increased slightly. On the demand side, the downstream PTA demand for raw materials continued to decline, and three sets of 4.5 million T / a PTA units in Fujian were put into load reduction operation; A 350000 T / a production line in East China is planned to be overhauled from March 1 to 20, and the overall load of two sets of 6.6 million T / a PTA units in East China is reduced. At present, the weekly average price of PX CFR China’s main port is 114294 (+ 57.94) US dollars / ton, the price difference between PX and crude oil is 374.83 (- 4.31) US dollars / ton, the weekly average price difference between PX and naphtha is 125.99 (- 40.90) US dollars / ton, and the operating rate is 83.11% (+ 2.29pct).
PTA: the market rose sharply. International crude oil prices rose sharply and cost support was strong. At the supply side, Yisheng new materials and fuhaichuang devices all have the action of reducing the load. Yizheng Chemical fiber small line device has entered the maintenance, and the market supply continues to decline. On the demand side, the start-up of the downstream polyester market continued to increase in a narrow range during the week, but the performance of the terminal market was always relatively poor. The overall performance of polyester production and marketing was light. Moreover, due to the rapid rise in the price of polyester raw materials, the downstream follow-up was limited, and the procurement was mainly to meet the rigid demand. At present, the average weekly price of PTA spot is 581214 (+ 335.71) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is -188.20 (- 5.83) yuan / ton, the operating rate is 67.20% (- 2.20pct), and the social circulation inventory of PTA is 2155000 (- 103000) tons.
MEG: the market price bottomed out and rebounded. The international price of crude oil continued to rise, the international price of naphtha soared sharply, the price of thermal coal operated smoothly, and the cost support continued to be strengthened. From the supply side, a Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) T / a coal to ethylene glycol plant in Northwest China was restarted, China’s output increased slightly, the port inventory accumulated, and the supply side pressure continued to increase. On the demand side, the increase in the start-up of the terminal weaving industry is limited. The maintenance and restart of devices in the polyester market coexist within a week, the overall supply increment is higher than the shrinkage, the overall start-up load of the industry is still at a high level, the production and sales of the polyester market is general, and the demand side maintains a stable operation. At present, the weekly average price of MEG spot is 501786 (+ 80.00) yuan / ton, the inventory in East China tank farm is 963100 (+ 45600) tons, and the operating rate is 70.60% (+ 1.20pct).
Polyester filament: the market is rising. The international oil price soared, the double raw materials continued to rise, and the cost pressure became prominent. Polyester filament manufacturers successively raised their quotations, and the focus of market transactions continued to move upward. Under the guidance of rising buying sentiment, the downstream purchased an appropriate amount, local production and sales recovered, and the market volume and price of polyester filament rose simultaneously, but the terminal demand did not improve substantially. At present, the weekly average price of polyester filament is poy808571 (+ 278.57) yuan / ton, fdy846071 (+ 178.57) yuan / ton and dty968571 (+ 214.29) yuan / ton, the industry average single ton profit is POY + 153.45 (- 24.79) yuan / ton, FDY + 136.86 (- 91.16) yuan / ton and DTY + 352.57 (- 67.45) yuan / ton respectively, and the inventory days of polyester filament enterprises are poy27.5 yuan / ton respectively 20 (+ 0.00) days, fdy30 50 (+ 0.00) days and dty31 50 (+ 0.00) days, operating rate 89.30% (+ 1.30pct).
Weaving: start work and recover slowly. The price of raw materials rose strongly, while the downstream grey cloth maintained a low profit operation, the terminal orders have not been issued in large quantities, China has only a small number of spring and summer orders, and foreign trade also performed poorly due to the rising price of raw materials and the rise of sea freight. On the whole, the downstream market is still relatively light. At present, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 64.05% (+ 4.31pct), and the grey fabric inventory is 33.20 (+ 0.20) days.
Polyester staple fiber: the market center of gravity moves upward in a wide range. The oil price continued to rise, and the transaction focus moved up again under the strong support of the cost side. On the supply side, there is no device restart or maintenance this week, and the overall output has little change. On the demand side, the shipment of polyester staple fiber this week is acceptable. The broad rise in staple fiber prices boosted the market mentality, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was improved, but there was no significant support for terminal demand, and most yarn enterprises still focused on just needed purchasing. At present, the weekly average price of polyester staple fiber is 776238 (+ 222.38) yuan / ton, the industry average profit per ton is 104.78 (- 62.08) yuan / ton, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber enterprises are 0.50 (- 0.10) days, and the operating rate is 85.80% (+ 0.20pct).
Polyester bottle chip: the demand is still light. On the supply side, the start-up of enterprises is basically stable, and there is no device change in the short term. On the demand side, at present, most bottle embryo enterprises have resumed operation, but the operation in the sheet industry is still low due to insufficient orders. Most of the major mainstream beverage manufacturers had locked in the supply in advance years ago, and the market demand was limited. At present, the average spot price of PET bottles and chips is 806071 (+ 203.57) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is + 435.53 (- 74.56) yuan / ton, and the operating rate is 92.80% (+ 0.60pct).
Xinda refining and chemical index: from September 4, 2017 to March 4, 2021, Xinda refining and chemical index increased by 147.89%, the oil processing industry index decreased by – 10.51%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 16.92%.
Relevant listed companies: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ( Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) . SH), Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ( Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) . SH), Hengyi Petrochemical ( Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) . SZ), Rongsheng Petrochemical ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) . SZ), xinfengming ( Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) . SH) and Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) ( Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) . SZ), etc.
Risk factors: (1) the large-scale refining and chemical plant is put into operation, and the production schedule is lower than expected. (2) The macro-economic growth rate has declined seriously, resulting in a serious depression on the demand side of polyester. (3) Geopolitics and El Ni ñ o phenomenon have greatly interfered with oil prices. (4) The production capacity of px-pta-pet industrial chain cannot be expected to change significantly
