Double factors are favorable, and the power exchange industry is expected to usher in rapid growth. 1) The annual sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 6 million in 2025, and the ownership will exceed 27.7 million at that time. The CAGR of the ownership during the 14th Five Year Plan period is 37.1%, and the demand for relevant supporting facilities will increase sharply. 2) The power exchange mode is mentioned by the policy because it can solve the bottleneck of electric vehicle development. It is expected to further accelerate the growth rate of the charging industry after being encouraged by the power change policy.
Favored by the policy, middle and upper reaches enterprises have laid out the power exchange industry one after another. 1) Upstream battery enterprises will benefit from the surge in battery demand. Battery manufacturers led by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will lay out the field of power exchange and establish battery assets Co., Ltd. with vehicle enterprises from 2020. 2) The demand for power exchange has increased and thickened the business performance of midstream operators. At present, the industry is still in its infancy, and the competition pattern is not clear for the time being. In addition to auto enterprises, central and state-owned enterprises related to industries such as national power investment, PetroChina and Sinopec began to enter the Bureau.
The battery standard will be issued soon, and the industry is expected to expand to the C-end. The number of power stations may reach 30000 in 2025. 1) Commercial vehicles such as heavy trucks and mining trucks pay more attention to operational efficiency than personalized customization, which provides favorable conditions for the unification of battery standards. 2) The group standard of code for the construction of shared power station for electric passenger vehicles has passed the review and recommended four typical battery pack capacities, which provides a reference standard for the unification of battery pack size. 3) "Station Compatibility" mode is expected to expand the power exchange C-end market. 4) According to the construction plan of each enterprise, the number of power exchange stations in China is expected to reach 30000 by 2025; Based on the prediction of the growth rate of the number of replacement electric vehicles, it is optimistic that the number of replacement power stations will reach 27000 in 2025, and the corresponding investment scale will exceed 100 billion at that time.
The increase in the number of replacement electric vehicles helps to improve the operation efficiency and further enhance the profitability of the replacement power station. According to our calculation, when the utilization rate of operating vehicle replacement power station exceeds 25%, it can start to make profits. When the interest rate reaches 100%, the corresponding net profit rate is 20.9%, and the return cycle is only 1.1 years; The current cycle of commercial vehicle replacement power station is shorter, and the profit begins after the utilization rate exceeds 29%.
Suggested concern——
1. Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) : benefiting from the main business of power generation, the company has three advantages: low power cost, effectively relying on the layout of power plants to carry out off grid power exchange and rich energy storage projects, which can effectively reduce power costs and increase revenue.
2. Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) : the company acquired Suzhou DeMarco in 2015 and began the research and development of power exchange equipment. In 2017, Kunshan swop ( Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) holding grandson company) was jointly established with Wuhan Weineng, Weilai holding company, which is the main equipment supplier of Weilai first generation power station and the only supplier of second generation power station (as of October 2021).
3. Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) : the company's main business is intelligent equipment manufacturing. Benefiting from the accumulation of technology and experience in automotive electronics and lithium battery equipment, the company has high technical barriers.
Risk tips: 1) the popularity of replacing electric vehicles is not as expected; 2) the attribution of battery safety responsibility is not clear; 3) the unified progress of battery standardization is not clear; 4) hypothetical conditions, market development or deviation of calculation results
